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US-Ukraine ceasefire proposal: What could Russia demand? | Conflict News

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Russia has yet to make any response to a 30-day ceasefire proposal agreed by the United States and Ukraine after representatives from both countries engaged in talks in Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah on Tuesday.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who attended the Jeddah talks, said during a news conference afterwards: “I will talk to my Russian counterpart in the coming days.”

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, clad in military fatigues, visited Kursk for the first time since Ukraine’s incursion last year, hailing Russian war efforts.

But experts say it is unlikely that Russia would accept the US-Ukraine proposal without demands of its own being met.

So what is in the ceasefire proposal and what could Russia push back on?

What are the ceasefire terms agreed by the US and Ukraine?

Following the Jeddah talks, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy released a joint statement outlining the terms of a ceasefire.

The statement said the two countries had agreed on an “immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire”. It added that as a result, the US has lifted the pause on military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine.

The document also stated that the Jeddah discussion underscored the importance of humanitarian efforts during the ceasefire period. These include “the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children”.

However, the proposal makes no mention of sanctions on Russia or security guarantees for Ukraine. Nor does it mention Ukraine withdrawing troops from Russia’s Kursk region.

Trump has previously rejected the idea of the US offering security guarantees, leaving that issue to Ukraine’s European allies.

However, under the proposal agreed between the US and Ukraine, the latter states that it wants its European partners to be “involved in the peace process”. Some of Ukraine’s European allies, such as the United Kingdom and France, are in the process of discussing security guarantees for the country.

On Wednesday, the Kremlin said it would review the details of the proposal from the US before making an assessment.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia would not rush to a decision, Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari reported from Moscow.

Speaking with Irish Taoiseach Micheal Martin at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said: “Our people are going to Russia right now as we speak. And hopefully we can get a ceasefire from Russia.” Trump added he had received “positive messages” about the ceasefire, but “a positive message means nothing.”

Multiple media outlets have reported that Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will visit Russia to speak to Putin in the coming days.

How could Russia respond to the ceasefire proposal?

It is unlikely that Russia would accept the ceasefire as it is, multiple analysts say.

“I think [Russia] rejecting the deal will be unwise politically, diplomatically, but accepting it right now as it is, it’s not going to happen,” Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the defence studies department at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, said: “It would be strange and out of character if Russia were to agree to the current proposition without presenting additional demands.”

“Moscow might accept some form of ceasefire, but I don’t see the Kremlin changing its fundamental strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine and having the world accept and validate its brutal aggression,” Mikhail Alexseev, a professor of political science at San Diego State University, told Al Jazeera. “If Russia is seriously interested in a lasting peace, it would quickly agree with the ceasefire and proceed to negotiations on its troop withdrawal from at least some of Ukraine’s occupied territories.”

What could Russia demand in return for a ceasefire?

Lifting of sanctions and security guarantees

Giles said Russia has “every incentive” to press for “permanent restrictions on security guarantees given to Ukraine” and a lifting of sanctions, among other potential demands.

Since the Ukraine war began in 2022, the US and other allies of Ukraine have imposed at least 21,692 sanctions on Russia, targeting individuals, media organisations, the military sector, energy sector, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications, among other sectors.

Alexseev said a lifting of sanctions would help Russia “rebuild, regroup, and resume the war when it’s ready and when it sees the attention and resources of other major powers diverted elsewhere”.

Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kursk

Another demand Russia could make is for the Kursk region to be cleared of Ukrainian troops, Miron said. On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk, seizing territory inside Russia.

Ukraine has since been losing ground in Kursk and the Russian army has announced rapid gains. Valery Gerasimov told Putin during his Wednesday visit that Russian forces had gained 1,100 square km (425 square miles) of Kursk.

Miron added: “Until the ceasefire is implemented and everybody is on the same page, time will pass, which will probably give the Russians the necessary time to at least get Kursk back so that it removes any potential negotiating bonuses for Ukraine.”

US backing for Russia’s demands

“If past performance is any guide, [Russia’s] demands will be backed by the US,” Giles said.

“I don’t think that Ukraine had any sort of way of dictating any rules here. The United States said, ‘This is your choice, you are not a subject any more, you’re an object.’ This is what actually has been demonstrated.”



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US-backed GHF suspends Gaza aid for full day, names new evangelical leader | Israel-Palestine conflict News

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Israeli military warns access roads to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s (GHF) aid distribution sites are now considered ‘combat zones’.

The United States- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) will suspend aid distribution in the war-torn territory on Wednesday, a day after Israeli forces again opened fire on Palestinian aid seekers near a GHF distribution site, killing at least 27 and injuring more than 100.

Israel’s military also said that approach roads to the aid distribution centres will be “considered combat zones” on Wednesday, and warned that people in Gaza should heed the GHF announcement to stay away.

“We confirm that travel is prohibited tomorrow on roads leading to the distribution centers … and entry to the distribution centers is strictly forbidden,” an Israeli military spokesperson said.

In a post on social media, GHF said the temporary suspension was necessary to allow for “renovation, reorganisation and efficiency improvement work”.

“Due to the ongoing updates, entry to the distribution centre areas is slowly prohibited! Please do not go to the site and follow general instructions. Operations will resume on Thursday. Please continue to follow updates,” the group said.

The temporary suspension of aid comes as more than 100 Palestinian people seeking aid have been reported killed by Israeli forces in the vicinity of GHF distribution centres since the organisation started operating in the enclave on May 27.

The killing of people desperately seeking food supplies has triggered mounting international outrage with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres demanding an independent inquiry into the deaths and for “perpetrators to be held accountable”.

“It is unacceptable that Palestinians are risking their lives for food,” Guterres said.

The Israeli military has admitted it shot at aid seekers on Tuesday, but claimed that they opened fire when “suspects” deviated from a stipulated route as a crowd of Palestinians was making its way to the GHF distribution site in Gaza.

Israel’s military said it is looking into the incident and the reports of casualties.

On Tuesday, GHF named its new executive chairman as US evangelical Christian leader Reverend Dr Johnnie Moore.

Moore, who was an evangelical adviser to the White House during the first term of United States President Donald Trump, said in a statement that GHF was “demonstrating that it is possible to move vast quantities of food to people who need it most — safely, efficiently, and effectively”.

The UN and aid agencies have refused to work with the GHF, accusing the group of lacking neutrality and of being part of Israel’s militarisation of aid in Gaza. Israel has also been accused of “weaponising” hunger in Gaza, which has been brought about by a months-long Israeli blockade on food, medicine, water and other basic essentials entering the war-torn territory.

Moore’s appointment is likely to add to concerns regarding GHF’s operations in Gaza, given his support for the controversial proposal Trump floated in February for the US to take over Gaza, remove the Palestinian population, and focus on real estate development in the territory.

After Trump proposed the idea, Moore posted video of Trump’s remarks on X and wrote: “The USA will take full responsibility for future of Gaza, giving everyone hope & a future.”

Responding on social media to UN chief Guterres’s outrage following the killing of aid seekers in Gaza on Sunday, Moore said: “Mr Secretary-General, it was a lie… spread by terrorists & you’re still spreading it.

The GHF’s founding executive director, former US marine Jake Wood, resigned from his position before the Gaza operation began, questioning the organisation’s “impartiality” and “independence”.

Critics have accused GHF, which has not revealed where its funds come from, of facilitating the Israeli military’s goal of depopulating northern Gaza as it has concentrated aid distribution in the southern part of the territory, forcing thousands of desperate people to make the perilous journey to its locations to receive assistance.



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Five UN food aid workers killed in Sudan ambush as hunger crisis deepens | Sudan war News

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Deadly attack on United Nations convoy in Sudan disrupts aid to hunger-stricken families in the war-torn country.

An ambush on a United Nations food aid convoy in Sudan has killed at least five people, blocking urgently needed supplies from reaching civilians facing starvation in the war-torn Darfur city of el-Fasher.

Aid agencies confirmed on Tuesday that the 15-truck convoy was transporting critical humanitarian supplies from Port Sudan to North Darfur when it was attacked overnight.

“Five members of the convoy were killed and several more people were injured. Multiple trucks were burned, and critical humanitarian supplies were damaged,” the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Food Programme (WFP) said in a joint statement.

The agencies did not identify the perpetrators and called for an urgent investigation, describing the incident as a violation of international humanitarian law. The route had been shared in advance with both warring parties.

The convoy was nearing al-Koma, a town under the control of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), when it came under fire. The area had witnessed a drone attack earlier in the week that killed civilians, according to local activists.

Fighting between the RSF and the Sudanese army has raged for over two years, displacing millions and plunging more than half of Sudan’s population into acute hunger. El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, remains one of the most vulnerable regions.

“Hundreds of thousands of people in el-Fasher are at high risk of malnutrition and starvation,” the UN statement warned.

Both sides blamed each other for the attack. The RSF accused the army of launching an air attack on the convoy, while the army claimed RSF fighters torched the trucks. Neither account could be independently verified.

The attack is the latest in a string of assaults on humanitarian operations.

In recent weeks, RSF shelling targeted WFP facilities in el-Fasher, and an attack on El Obeid Hospital in North Kordofan killed several medical staff. Aid delivery has become increasingly perilous as access routes are blocked or come under fire.



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Two suspected Ugandan rebels killed in Kampala explosion | Conflict News

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A female suicide bomber and another suspected rebel were killed in a blast in Uganda’s capital city.

Two suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels, including a female suicide bomber, were killed in an explosion near a prominent Catholic shrine in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, as crowds gathered to mark Martyrs’ Day.

The blast on Tuesday took place in the upscale suburb of Munyonyo, outside the Munyonyo Martyrs’ Shrine, where Ugandans were assembling to commemorate 19th-century Christians executed for their faith. No civilian injuries were reported.

“A counterterrorism unit this morning intercepted and neutralised two armed terrorists in Munyonyo,” said army spokesman Chris Magezi on X. He confirmed one of the assailants was a female suicide bomber “laden with powerful explosives”.

Footage broadcast by NBS Television, an independent outlet, showed a destroyed motorbike and debris scattered across the road. Police Chief Abas Byakagaba told NBS the explosion occurred while “two people were on a motorcycle,” adding: “The good thing, though, is that there were no people nearby who were injured.”

There has been no immediate claim of responsibility.

While Ugandan authorities are still piecing together the events, Magezi suggested the suspects were linked to the ADF, a rebel group that originated in Uganda in the 1990s but later relocated to eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The ADF has pledged allegiance to ISIL (ISIS) and was behind a spate of deadly bombings in Uganda in 2021.

The group has been accused by the United Nations of widespread atrocities, including the killing of thousands of civilians in the region.

Martyrs’ Day is one of Uganda’s most significant religious holidays, drawing thousands of pilgrims annually. Security forces have increased patrols across the capital in the aftermath of the incident.



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