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Why the administration’s latest allegations about the Russia investigation don’t add up

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CNN
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Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassified and released new intelligence documents Friday that she claimed were evidence of a “treasonous conspiracy” by top Obama administration officials to manufacture the notion that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election.

But the allegations conflate and misrepresent what the intelligence community actually concluded, according to a review of a GOP-led Senate investigation from 2020 and interviews with congressional sources familiar with the probe.

The newly unsealed documents do nothing to undercut the government’s core findings in its 2017 assessment that Russia launched an influence and hacking campaign and sought to help Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton, the sources said.

The new allegations from Gabbard lean on assessments before the election and statements from Obama-era intelligence officials finding that the Russians did not alter the election results through cyber-attacks aimed at infiltrating voting systems.

But the January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment never concluded that Russian cyberattacks altered the outcome of the 2016 election or compromised any election infrastructure in the first place, though state voting systems were probed.

Instead, the assessment focused on Russia’s influence campaign ordered by President Vladimir Putin and cyber operations against US and Democratic Party officials, including the hacked emails released by WikiLeaks.

“These are two different things — cyberattacks on infrastructure and hacking the DNC — which they’re conflating in an attempt to make a political point,” said a former senior congressional source familiar with the Senate review. “It’s just wildly misleading on its face.”

In 2020, a bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee review agreed with the intelligence community’s conclusions on Russia’s election interference and Putin’s role directing the effort.

Multiple congressional sources familiar with the Senate report said that Gabbard is trying to lean on intelligence assessments that no voting systems were breached to falsely make a broader leap that a Russian influence and cyber campaign did not occur. The Senate review included interviews with the intelligence analysts who drafted the report, none of whom reported any political interference, the congressional sources said.

Gabbard’s office did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

Gabbard’s declassified document release is only the latest example of Trump administration officials trying to rewrite the history of the Russia investigation during the president’s first six months in office.

Last month, CIA Director John Ratcliffe also released a review that criticized the intelligence community’s conclusion that Putin sought to help Trump, which he said was reached “through an atypical & corrupt process.” Ratcliffe referred former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey to the Justice Department, which is now investigating, CNN previously reported. Gabbard also threatened on Friday to refer Obama officials to the Department of Justice for potential prosecution.

Trump and his allies have spent years trying to denigrate all aspects of the Russia investigation, which consumed much of the first two years of Trump’s first term – including the 2017 intelligence assessment; special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe and the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation; and the infamous dossier written by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele, which was funded by the Clinton campaign and alleged coordination between the Russian government and people associated with the Trump campaign.

Trump touted Gabbard’s findings over the weekend, reposting videos of Gabbard speaking on Fox Business and memes of former President Barack Obama and his top officials in prison jumpsuits. Earlier this year, Trump declassified and released redacted documents from a binder that the White House compiled in 2020 criticizing the FBI’s probe, including the bureau’s errors in relying on the dossier to obtain foreign surveillance warrants on a Trump adviser.

“Obama himself manufactured the Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. Crooked Hillary, Sleepy Joe, and numerous others participated in this, THE CRIME OF THE CENTURY!. Irrefutable EVIDENCE. A major threat to our Country!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social Monday evening.

The January 2017 intelligence assessment, released days before Trump took office, was a key first step in turning Trump against the “deep state.” He’s long disputed the conclusion that Putin and the Russian government aspired to help him win, believing it undermined the legitimacy of his 2016 victory.

A 2018 report by the GOP-led House Intelligence Committee disputed the tradecraft behind the conclusion that Putin tried to help Trump. Ratcliffe was a member of that committee at the time, and FBI Director Kash Patel was a top aide on the panel. Ratcliffe’s review last month did not dispute the intelligence community’s finding that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

Gabbard alleged that the intelligence assessment on Russian interference relied on the Steele dossier and was used by the Obama White House to “subvert the will of the American people.”

In an 11-page memo accompanying the declassified documents, Gabbard cites emails from intelligence officials and an earlier September 2016 intelligence assessment stating that foreign adversaries don’t have the capability to “covertly overturn the vote outcome.” The memo points to talking points in December 2016 for then-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, stating: “Foreign adversaries did not use cyberattacks on election infrastructure to alter the US Presidential election outcome.”

Christopher Steele, ex-MI6 agent, center, departs from the Royal Courts of Justice in London, UK, on Monday, Oct. 16, 2023.

Gabbard’s memo alleges that when the January 2017 intelligence assessment on Russian interference was released, it “falsely alleges, based in part on ‘further information’ that had ‘come to light’ since the election, that Putin directed an effort to help President Trump defeat Hillary Clinton.”

“This ‘further information’ is later confirmed to be the Steele Dossier,” the memo states.

But congressional sources took issue with both of her claims: The intelligence community conclusion of a Putin-directed campaign was not evidence that the election outcome had been altered, they said, and the committee’s interviews with the analysts who drafted the assessment said that the Steele dossier did not inform its analysis.

There was an internal debate about whether the dossier should be part of the assessment or a separate annex, but the CIA insisted it be kept out of the report, according to the committee’s report.

“All individuals the Committee interviewed stated that the Steele material did not in any way inform the analysis in the ICA — including the key judgments — because it was unverified information and had not been disseminated as serialized intelligence reporting,” the committee report states.

Gabbard’s memo claims the dossier was involved in the assessment on the basis of an “ODNI whistleblower,” who had worked previously on election interference and said they were sidelined on the January 2017 Russia document.

The memo states that the whistleblower was “shocked” to be told in helping to respond to a 2019 Freedom of Information Act request that the dossier was “a factor” in the intelligence assessment.

But the email that’s cited in the memo merely states that the dossier was a factor because it was an annex to the intelligence assessment — there’s no suggestion that means it was involved in the crafting of the analysis itself.

Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in a statement that the panel’s investigation resulted in a “unanimous, bipartisan conclusion” that Putin interfered in 2016 to benefit Trump.

“This is just another example of the DNI trying to cook the books, rewrite history, and erode trust in the intelligence agencies she’s supposed to be leading,” Warner said.



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Trump accuses Obama of treason, annotated

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A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.


CNN
 — 

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on Friday released a slew of documents that she said implicate members of the Obama administration for “treasonous” behavior during the 2016 election.

The claims confuse the allegation that Russia interfered in the 2016 election with the idea that Russia actively tried to change results by hacking into voting systems. CNN’s Jeremy Herb and Katie Bo Lillis went through them and talked to people who worked on a bipartisan Senate review of the 2016 election.

“Wildly misleading” is how the information was described by one source in their report.

But that didn’t stop President Donald Trump from accusing former President Barack Obama of treason, a crime punishable by death in the US, when he was asked about it in the Oval Office on Tuesday. Trump made the accusation while appearing at an event to discuss trade with Philippines leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Trump’s very long, meandering answer is a window into how his mind works. All roads lead back to immigration and his 2020 election loss.

Obama’s office issued a rare statement in response:

“Out of respect for the office of the presidency, our office does not normally dignify the constant nonsense and misinformation flowing out of this White House with a response. But these claims are outrageous enough to merit one,” said spokesman Patrick Rodenbush. “These bizarre allegations are ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction. Nothing in the document issued last week undercuts the widely accepted conclusion that Russia worked to influence the 2016 presidential election but did not successfully manipulate any votes. These findings were affirmed in a 2020 report by the bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee, led by then-Chairman Marco Rubio.”

Here’s a look at what Trump said, along with some context from CNN reporting.

QUESTION from reporter: Tulsi Gabbard has submitted a criminal referral to the Department of Justice. From your perspective, who should the DOJ target as part of their investigation, what specific figures in the Obama administration?

TRUMP: Well, based on what I read, and I read pretty much what you read, it would be President Obama. He started it. And Biden was there with them and (then-FBI Director James) Comey was there and (then-Director of National Intelligence James) Clapper. The whole group was there — (then-CIA Director John) Brennan. They were all there, the — in a room. Right here, this was the room.

(Trump said all of this in the Oval Office, which he has bedecked with gold filigree, portraits from the White House vault and a copy, behind a curtain, of the Declaration of Independence.)

TRUMP: This (the Oval Office) is much more beautiful than it was then, but that’s OK. I have nice pictures up. They came out of the vaults. They were in there for 100 years. This is much more beautiful. We have the Declaration of Independence now in the room, which wasn’t here. I guess people didn’t feel too good about putting it here, but I do. But you know what? If you look at that — those papers, they have them stone cold, and it was President Obama. It wasn’t lots of people all over the place — it was them too — but the leader of the gang was President Obama, Barack Hussein Obama. Have you heard of him?

(From CNN’s report: The new allegations from Gabbard lean on assessments before the election and statements from Obama-era intelligence officials finding that Russia did not alter the election results through cyber-attacks aimed at infiltrating voting systems. But the January 2017 intelligence community assessment never concluded that Russian cyberattacks altered the outcome of the 2016 election or compromised any election infrastructure in the first place, though state voting systems were probed.

Instead, the assessment focused on Russia’s influence campaign ordered by President Vladimir Putin and cyber operations against US and Democratic Party officials, including the hacked emails released by WikiLeaks.)

TRUMP: And except for the fact that he gets shielded by the press for his entire life, that’s the one they — look, he’s guilty. It’s not a question. You know, I like to say, ‘Let’s give it time. It’s there. He’s guilty.’ They — this was treason, this was every word you can think of.

(Treason, the crime of trying to overthrow the government, could be punishable by death in the US. Even when the Department of Justice during the Biden administration accused Trump of election interference for trying to upend the 2020 election, it did not accuse him of treason.)

TRUMP: They tried to steal the election. They tried to obfuscate the election. They did things that nobody’s ever even imagined, even in other countries. You’ve seen some pretty rough countries. This man (Marcos) has seen some pretty rough countries but you’ve never seen anything like it. And we have all of the documents. And from what I — Tulsi told me, she’s got thousands of additional documents coming.

(We anticipate seeing them, although previously promised document dumps have failed to live up to expectations.)

TRUMP: So President Obama, it was his concept, his idea, but he also got it from crooked Hillary Clinton, crooked as a $3 bill. Hillary Clinton and — and her group, the Democrats, spent $12 million to Christopher Steele to write up a report that was a total fake report. Took two years to figure that out, but it came out that it was a total fake report, it was made-up, fiction. And they used that — now, the one thing they weren’t able to do was to — and probably the only thing I respect about the press in years is the press refused to write it before the election, they refused to put it in. The Steele report was a disaster, all lies, all fabrication, all admitted — an admitted fraud. She paid $12 million, and the Democrats, for that report to a wise guy named Christopher Steele. He wrote a phony report, and they wanted to get that report in before the election.

(The Steele dossier has been discredited, but the larger conclusion of the US intelligence community that Russia tried to meddle in the US election has stood. So has the Mueller report’s conclusion that there were interactions between Trump’s campaign and Russians during the 2016 campaign. Mueller’s report did not conclude that Trump’s campaign colluded with Russians or that Trump committed a crime. It also did not exonerate him.)

TRUMP: And I’ll tell you what, I talk about — all of the time — the fake news, how bad it is, but in this case, they wouldn’t do it. They saw it, they read it, and they said, “We don’t believe it.” And it was only after — substantially, like, a month and a half after the election that it got printed and it was a big wisp — it was just like a bang of nothing, because the election had ended. If that report had gotten published by the New York Times or somebody — and I respect the Times for maybe only this cause they’re crooked as you can be, they’re a terrible paper, a crooked, corrupt paper — but for this one moment, they said, “This is bullshit. We can’t put this in.”

(At the time, few organizations published the full Steele dossier in large part because it could not be corroborated, unlike Russia’s election meddling, which was documented by US intelligence agencies.)

TRUMP: And neither could any other pa — Wall Street Journal’s a lousy paper, very, very dishonest paper. As you see, I’m suing them for a lot of money ‘cause they do things very badly. It’s a really — it’s got a nice name but it’s really — in my opinion, it’s a terrible paper and it can be corrupt. But just so you know, they didn’t take the Steele report. It was the dossier. Remember the famous dossier? I called it the fake news dossier. The news wouldn’t publish it. And I’m amazed, they had two and a half months. It was finished two and a half months. That was supposed to be what was going to happen and it got published a couple of months after the election. And frankly, nobody cared too much about it. But that was a big thing.

(Related: Read CNN’s 2021 report, The Steel Dossier: A reckoning)

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office on Tuesday.

TRUMP: No, no, we caught Hillary Clinton. We caught Barack Hussein Obama. They’re the ones — and then you have many, many people under them. (Former national security adviser) Susan Rice. They’re all there. The names are all there. And I guess they figured they’re going to put this in classified information and nobody will ever see it again, but it doesn’t work that way.

(There’s no evidence for this type of conspiracy.)

TRUMP: And it’s the most unbelievable thing I think I’ve ever read. So, you want to take a look at that and stop talking about nonsense, because this is big stuff. Never has a thing like this happened in the history of our country. And by the way, it morphed into the 2020 race and the 2020 race was rigged. And it was, it was a rigged election. And because it was rigged, we have millions of people in our country. We have — we had inflation. We solved the inflation problem.

(There’s still no evidence the 2020 election was rigged. There’s plenty of evidence that Trump tried to subvert the results. The inflation problem is not necessarily solved, especially if Trump’s tariffs go into effect.)

TRUMP: But millions and millions of people came into our country because of that. And people that shouldn’t have been — people from gangs, and from jails, and from mental institutions. People that we don’t want in our country and people that we’re getting out, dangerous people — 11,888 murderers. Many of them, 50 percent, more than 50 percent, murdered more than one person. I hate to say this with such a distinguished guest but, you know, they asked me a question. I got to answer the question.

(Trump frequently tries to claim a large portion of undocumented immigrants are murderers. There’s no evidence for that. Read one of CNN’s Fact Checks of Trump’s claims about undocumented immigrants).

TRUMP: No, Barack Hussein Obama is the ringleader. Hillary Clinton was right there with them, and so was sleepy Joe Biden. And so were the rest of them. Comey, Clapper, the whole group, and they tried to rig an election and they got caught. And then they did rig the election in 2020.

And then, because I knew I won that election by a lot, I did it a third time and I won in a landslide. Every swing state won the popular vote. But I won that all the same way in 2020 and look at the damage that was caused.

(Trump did win in 2024. It was far from a landslide.)



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Analysis: Both targets of Trump’s tariffs, the EU and China still can’t get along

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Hong Kong
CNN
 — 

As the two biggest economic targets in Donald Trump’s trade war, some analysts thought the European Union and China could move closer together and stake out common ground.

But a summit between the two sides in Beijing on Thursday is instead expected to showcase the deep-seated frictions and mistrust that are widening a rift between the two heavyweights.

European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are set to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping and hold summit talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing.

The meeting comes as both countries have faced heightened tariffs on their exports to the US – with uncertainties in US trade relations driving Beijing to look to tighten ties with the EU and other major economies.

But a list of grievances between the two sides are setting that goal out of reach.

The EU was far from shy about its concerns in the lead up to the summit. Officials in recent weeks have reiterated their long-standing concerns over what they say are inexpensive Chinese goods “flooding” European markets, raised alarms about Beijing’s move to squeeze the rare earths supply chain, and decried its ongoing backing for Russia as it wages war in Ukraine.

Beijing has lashed out against those concerns, including the 27-member bloc’s move last year to raise tariffs on its electric vehicles, launching a range of its own trade probes in apparent retaliation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shakes hands with Chinese leader Xi Jinping after holding a trilateral meeting including French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris in May, 2024.

After the EU last month announced it was barring Chinese companies from participating in public tenders for medical devices over a certain value, Beijing hit back with its own curbs on government purchases of Europe-made devices.

On Monday, China’s Ministry of Commerce slammed the EU decision to include two Chinese banks and a handful of other firms in its latest sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. It claimed the move would have a “severely negative impact on China-EU economic and trade relations.”

All this sets the stage for a contentious summit, ostensibly meant to celebrate 50 years of relations, that’s already been whittled from a planned two days to a single-day event.

“We should expect a very difficult moment and not a deal making moment,” said Abigaël Vasselier, head of the Foreign Relations team at MERICS think tank in Germany, during a media briefing this week.

And in some ways that mirrors frictions between the China and the US, she added: “China has created leverage over Europe, has gone into a tit-for-tat escalation with Europe, and has linked all issues. You could almost say this looks like a Trump playbook used by China on Europe.”

Trump’s trade war – and his negotiations with both major economies – is also casting a long shadow over the summit.

There were signs earlier this year that Beijing hoped shared adversity in the face of tariff threats from the US could push China and Europe together. And earlier this month, Beijing granted a reprieve for Europe’s major cognac makers following an anti-dumping probe widely seen as retaliation for the bloc’s imposition of up to 45% tariffs on its electric vehicles last year.

But in separate addresses to G7 leaders and European lawmakers in recent weeks, von der Leyen made clear the bloc’s deep concerns about Beijing had been unresolved.

“China is using this quasi-monopoly (on rare earths) not only as a bargaining chip, but also weaponizing it to undermine competitors in key industries,” she said to G7 leaders meeting in Canada in June.

Beijing has extensive control over supply chains for these critical minerals key in everything from EV batteries and cell phones to fighter jets and roiled global manufacturing after placing export controls on some such minerals amid its trade spat with the US. China agreed during a truce with the US in June to ease these controls.

Von der Leyen also called for unified G7 action to pressure Beijing as it “floods global markets with subsidized overcapacity that its own market cannot absorb.”

Miners are seen at the Bayan Obo mine containing rare earth minerals, in China's Inner Mongolia in 2011.

While von der Leyen has long been hawkish on Beijing, voices in China have seen her as pandering to the US to ease trade frictions – and are watching closely for signs that a potential US-EU trade deal could target their economy.

But China’s leaders are also joining this week’s summit in what they see as a relatively strong position relative to the EU when it comes the US talks.

Beijing sees its decision to play hardball with the US, by raising tit-for-tat levies and then showing the power of its rare earths leverage, as paying off – bringing the US to the negotiating table twice and resulting with an agreement for a trade framework.

Even as frictions remain – including China’s purchases of Russian oil and Washington’s elevated tariffs on Chinese goods – Beijing has already chalked wins, like the announced resumption of sales of Nvidia’s H20 AI chips to China, in a reversal of an April US export ban.

The EU, meanwhile, is scrambling ahead of an August 1 deadline to cut a deal with the US to avert heavy tariffs – and may see more at stake than their Chinese counterparts.

“The worst-case scenario would be for Europe to find itself in a two-front trade war with the US and China at a time when Trump is pressing for some sort of Faustian bargain with Beijing,” said Noah Barkin, a Berlin-based visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank.

With this backdrop, chances for any concrete outcomes appear low to observers on both sides, who instead stress that dialogue can be a form of progress in itself.

Europe has been clear that it doesn’t want to cut ties with China, but rather “rebalance” its economic relationship, which saw a more than 300 billion Euro deficit last year. It also aims to “derisk” its supply chains, and work together with China on shared global issues like climate change – a potential area of agreement this week.

But experts say a key hold-up for Europe has been a sense that Beijing is unmoved by Brussels’ core concerns.

“We haven’t had an EU-China summit that produced real deliverables for many years and this one won’t be any different. That is a reflection of Beijing’s refusal to address the EU’s two biggest concerns: an increasingly imbalanced economic relationship that poses a growing threat to European industry and China’s ongoing support for Russia,” said Barkin.

China has rejected Europe’s concerns about industrial overcapacity leading to a flood of exports as baseless, with one state media outlet recently saying that instead of “rebalancing trade,” Europe to “needs to recalibrate its mentality.”

BYD electric cars at a vehicle presentation event in Berlin this May.

Instead, Beijing is expected to continue to push for setting minimum prices of Chinese-made EVs in Europe instead of tariffs, as well as unfettered access to European technology and markets. And even as Russia ramps up its assault on Kyiv, Beijing is unlikely to give any sign of a shift in that position on Moscow, its close partner.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the European Union’s top diplomat earlier this month that Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China.

China has long claimed neutrality in the war and defended its “normal trade” with Russia, while ramping up purchases of its oil and shipping goods Western leaders say power Russia’s defense industry.

But observers in China still feel there’s room for collaboration as the two sides sit down on Thursday.

“To solve challenges from climate change to AI and global conflicts, the European Union needs China, and China needs the European Union,” according to Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing.

Alluding to the view that the EU can be a counterweight for China against US frictions and a partner in promoting globalization, he added: “If China and the European Union seek win-win cooperation, the so-called new Cold War cannot prevail.”



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Court rules estate of Mike Lynch, who died when his yacht sank, owes HPE more than $940 million

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London
AP
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Hewlett Packard is owed more than £700 million ($943 million) by the estate of late British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his former finance director after they lost a fraud case involving Lynch’s software company, a UK High Court judge ruled Tuesday.

The court’s decision comes nearly a year after Lynch was killed when his superyacht sank off Sicily, where he had gathered with friends and family to celebrate his acquittal months earlier in a separate US criminal trial.

The US tech company, now known as Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), had accused Lynch of fraud and conspiracy after it bought Lynch’s company, Autonomy Corp, for $11 billion.

HPE also took Lynch to court in the United Kingdom, seeking up to $4 billion in damages in a civil case. The High Court had ruled mostly in HPE’s favor in 2022, but the judge had said that the amount awarded would be “substantially less” than the company was seeking.

Judge Robert Hildyard was originally due to issue a draft ruling in September but delayed it after Lynch’s yacht, the Bayesian, sank in the storm off Sicily on August 19. Lynch and his daughter were among seven people who died while 15 others survived, including the captain and most of the crew.

In a written judgment, Hildyard expressed his “sympathy and deepest condolences” to Lynch’s wife and family.

Hildyard said HPE suffered a loss of £646 million based on the difference between Autonomy’s purchase price and what it would have paid had Autonomy’s “true financial position been correctly presented.”

HPE is also owed £51.7 million for “personal claims related to deceit and/or misrepresentation” against Lynch and Sushovan Hussain, the finance director, and $47.5 million for other losses.

Hussain was convicted in a 2018 US trial of wire fraud and other crimes related to Autonomy’s sale and sentenced to five years in prison.

“We are pleased that this decision brings us a step closer to the resolution of this dispute,” HPE said in a statement. “We look forward to the further hearing at which the final amount of HPE’s damages will be determined.”

A hearing to deal with interest, currency conversion and whether Lynch’s estate can appeal is set for November.

In a statement written before his death and issued posthumously, Lynch said the ruling shows that HP’s original claim “was not just a wild overstatement – misleading shareholders – but it was off the mark by 80%.”

“This result exposes HP’s failure and makes clear that the immense damage to Autonomy was down to HP’s own errors and actions,” he said.



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