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Trump’s plan to cut off Russian oil funds could raise prices for everyone

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Hong Kong
CNN
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US President Donald Trump is trying again to end the war in Ukraine – not by targeting Russia, but by hitting the countries that buy Russia’s oil.

Top of that list? China and India, two of the world’s most important economies.

The US could slap those countries with economic penalties, Trump said, if Russia doesn’t agree to make peace within a 50-day limit.

That could roil not just two of Asia’s biggest markets but, by extension, the entire world, as India and China scramble to shore up supplies and find different oil sources – to avoid potentially hefty US tariffs or other sanctions.

Russia made about $192 billion last year from selling oil, according to the International Energy Agency. Cutting that off could be effective – but also expensive, and not just for Moscow. Oil prices could spike globally if Russia’s more than 7 million exported barrels of oil per day abruptly disappear.

Oil markets haven’t reacted much to Trump’s threat yet, largely because of uncertainty around whether Trump will follow through and, if so, how.

China on Tuesday also appeared unfazed. A spokesperson for its foreign ministry told reporters that “coercion” wouldn’t end conflict in Ukraine. India has yet to comment.

But using heavy tariffs to stop countries buying Russian oil would be a blunt tool – and while they could significantly squeeze Russia’s war funding, they could also unleash more havoc on the rest of the world.

In the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the US, United Kingdom and European Union threw up import bans and price caps on Russian oil. But Russia’s exporters adapted quickly, rerouting the flow of the country’s vast supplies from West to East, where buyers, especially in China and India, significantly stepped up purchases of discounted fuel.

Three and a half years later, the war is grinding on. Trump, back in the White House for six months, is increasingly frustrated with Putin’s apparent disinterest in peace.

A bipartisan bill to let Trump tariff countries buying Russian energy or uranium at 500% had been gaining momentum in the Senate. Supporting lawmakers called the bill the “sledgehammer” Trump needs to end the war.

On Monday, Trump announced his own plan, saying the US was going to be doing “secondary tariffs,” with a White House official clarifying to CNN that Trump meant secondary sanctions on other countries that buy Russian oil.

“They’re secondary sanctions. It’s sanctions on countries that are buying the oil from Russia. So it’s really not about sanctioning Russia,” Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, told CNN that day at the White House. “It’s about tariffs on countries like India and China that are buying their oil. It really is going to dramatically impact the Russian economy.”

Secondary tariffs, which experts say could mean broadly imposing duties across a countries’ exports to the US, would be a relatively new tool that could give India and China strong financial incentives to stop buy Russian oil, if it appears imminent. Both countries have already been in separate trade talks with the US to negotiate down other Trump-imposed levies.

“It’s the strongest possible card from an energy perspective, at least, that the allies of Ukraine can play,” Ben McWilliams, an affiliate fellow in Energy and Climate Policy at Brussels think tank Bruegel, said of targeting Russian oil exports. “But there’s a question – even once they’ve been implemented, how serious is the US about enforcement?”

A motorist rides past an oil refinery operated in Mumbai, India, in April.

But playing that strong card would come with consequences, ones that Trump might not be prepared to accept, analysts say.

For one, the volumes at stake – and that could need to be replaced – are huge.

Russian crude accounts for 36% of India’s imports, and nearly a fifth of China’s, making Russia both countries’ top supplier, according to Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at trade intelligence firm Kpler, citing figures for the first six months of this year, which include estimates on how much China received via pipeline.

Turkey clocks in as a distant third to those two buyers, but is a key purchaser of oil products, according to the Europe-based nonprofit Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Russian crude also flows to Hungary and Slovakia via pipeline under an EU exemption, the center’s data show.

“If nobody is buying Russian oil, then where can we find the supplement? OPEC has some spare capacity, but it’s difficult to ask them to pump 3.4 million barrels overnight,” said Kpler’s Xu, referring to Russia’s daily seaborne exports. “It’s just difficult to make up the market share … so we’re definitely going to see the prices go up quite a lot.”

And while that could pressure Putin, it would also pressure Trump.

“We all know that Trump dislikes high oil prices, and this is what makes this so complicated … because there is limited spare capacity, and there is limited way to compensate if there is a large disruption,” said commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo at UBS in Zurich. “It doesn’t fit into the agenda of low oil prices.”

Limits on current spare capacity and reserves, as well as a lead time of months or years to bring more production capacity online, could make it hard to keep oil prices low, he added.

That said, the US could extend deadlines to buy time for more supplies – and sweeping tariffs may only be one tool in the Trump administration’s kit.

The president’s advisors were likely providing him “with a range of options that would include different forms of sanctions, including financial sanctions, as well as tariffs,” according to Gregory Shaffer, a professor of international law at Georgetown University.

Those could include more traditional US uses of secondary sanctions, such as targeting entities or individuals from other countries involved in the Russian oil trade, or even expanding those sanctions to have a broader set of penalties, for example on securities trading or access to American technologies in a Russian oil-purchasing countries, he said.

Already the Biden administration earlier this year imposed the harshest sanctions to date on Russia’s oil industry, blacklisting two of its largest oil companies as well as nearly 200 oil-carrying vessels.

A narrower sanctions approach than tariffs could be a more practical option, which could still have a sizable impact of disincentivizing players from the trade – if tightly enforced, experts say.

“The likelihood is that (secondary tariffs are) too disruptive for Trump to be willing to use,” according to Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at London-based consultancy Energy Aspects. “There’s a higher chance that he’d end up using secondary sanctions, which are a more kind of targeted and well-understood tool.”

Bronze noted Trump has already issued an executive order allowing a tariff of 25% on goods from countries buying Venezuelan oil in March, but that the US president “hasn’t taken any action to impose that.”

Aerial view of the storage facilities for petrochemical resources and products in east China's Shandong province in June.

The threatened penalties appear to have two goals: signal to Russia that it could be starved of profits and use its trading partners to ratchet up pressure.

NATO chief Mark Rutte on Wednesday called on China, India and Brazil to “please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks.” Otherwise, Trump’s measures “will slam back” on them, he said. (Brazil accounted for about 12% of purchases of Russian oil products last month, according to CREA.

But while observers say a cash-strapped Moscow is closely watching this threat, Beijing and New Delhi are unlikely to want to press Putin or change course until they are absolutely sure how real Trump’s threats are. Both countries have deep strategic ties with Russia and have defended their trade in the face of accusations they are funding the war – a conflict in which both claim to have not chosen sides.

Given the scale of its Russian crude purchases, Beijing has room to barter with Trump and reduce its imports, but that won’t change China’s approach to Russia, according to Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. “I don’t think China will be putting pressure on Russia, at least not because of US pressure” at this point, she said.

China is also used to the US looking the other way as it imports significant volumes of sanctioned Iranian oil via intermediaries.

And for India at present, the country “sees no value in giving in to US pressure on Russian oil,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of the India-based Global Trade Research Initiative. He noted that this is just one of a list of present and future “unpredictable US demands” and shouldn’t change India’s “strategic decisions.”

Trump’s own interests in maintaining trade with these major economies is one more reason for questions about whether and what measures will ultimately come to pass.

“This (tariff threat) may be more symbolic,” said Georgetown’s Shaffer. But when it comes to the US signaling on its position on the war in Ukraine, he added, “the symbolism matters.”



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19 injured after fireworks show goes awry at fair in Germany

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Berlin
AP
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German authorities say at least 19 people were injured, four seriously, after a fireworks show went awry at a fair in the western city of Düsseldorf.

Fire squad and emergency services deployed after the incident late Friday at the Rheinkirmes event along the Rhine river, where images from the scene showed fireworks going off nearly at ground level along its banks.

A child was among the injured, the DPA news agency reported.

Düsseldorf fire services said police were investigating the cause of the accident.

“Our thoughts are with those affected and their families. We wish all those affected a speedy recovery from the consequences of the accident. We deeply regret the accident,” said Peter Dietlmaier, a spokesperson.

Organizers ended the fair early for the day, and were deciding whether to continue the traditional fireworks at next year’s event, he said.

The 10-day fair features amusement park rides, drone and fireworks shows, and other entertainment by hundreds of staff along the left bank of the Rhine, opposite the city’s historic district. The fair is organized by the St. Sebastianus Rifle Club, which traces its history to the year 1316.



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L’Etape du Tour: How amateurs measure themselves up to pros on one of the world’s toughest stages

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CNN
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The Tour de France’s reputation precedes it. Even if you’ve never seen a bike race or struggle to name a professional rider, the most casual sports fan is aware of just how physically and mentally demanding the event can be.

After 23 days on the road and well over 3,000 km (roughly 1,870 miles) cycled mostly around France, there are often just a handful of seconds separating the final podium finishers.

While the route changes each year, the 2025 iteration of the Tour follows tradition by being composed of 21 total stages.

For this year’s riders, though, Stage 19 stands above many others in terms of both difficulty and importance.

Competitors will have to climb a grueling 4,550 meters (about 14,930 feet) over the course of 130 km (almost 80.8 miles), the stage runs through the heart of the French Alps from Albertville all the way up to La Plagne.

For the Tour’s top contenders, this stage could make or break their shot at the coveted yellow jersey. It represents perhaps the final – and most brutal – opportunity to gain time on rivals before the race heads toward its conclusion.

But Stage 19 won’t just decide the fate of the pros. For the amateur riders tackling L’Étape du Tour – the public version of this exact stage – it’s a once-in-a-lifetime challenge and a chance to test themselves on the same roads as cycling’s elite.

L’Étape has been offering cycling enthusiasts from around the globe the chance to complete a Tour de France stage for over three decades.

This year, 16,000 riders are set to descend upon the hilly environs of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, with over 90 nations represented.

Christian Prudhomme, Director of the Tour de France, has described this year’s L’Étape as a “treat” for participants, who will endure each of the gargantuan climbs five days ahead of the pros.

Speaking to CNN Sports, some of this year’s participants shared their excitement and trepidation ahead of what many have dubbed “the challenge of a lifetime.”

The skill and experience levels of those taking part vary widely, from those hoping to one day go pro to others with full-time jobs taking part in their first-ever endurance event.

Amy Young is excited to take part in her first official L’Étape du Tour after finishing third in the female category in last year's Irish satellite race of the famed amateur event.

For charity worker Amy Young, she classes herself as somewhere in between those two extremes.

The English amateur rider will be taking part in her first L’Étape du Tour but has previously competed in other iterations of the famed amateur race, placing third in the female category at last year’s Irish event.

“I’m a cycling addict, so I just always want to push myself and my bike and see how far I can go,” Young told CNN Sports ahead of setting off for France.

“It’s the challenge of a lifetime, really, in terms of cycling. It’s such an iconic route, and to say you’ve ridden the most challenging stage of the Tour de France would be quite something.”

Living in Northamptonshire – an area of England not famed for its rolling hills – Young has found it tough to find training climbs comparable to the ones she is set to face in the French Alps.

“The amount of climbing we will have to do over the course of just one ride will be the biggest challenge I’ve faced on a bike,” the communications executive said.

“Being from where I’m from in the UK, it’s hard to properly put into scale just how big and steep some of the climbs will be.

“I’m honestly struggling to visualize the length of some sections. We are talking climbs that will take in excess of an hour at a time.”

Note: This graphic is intended to compare the relative heights of the stage, the distance is not to the same scale. Source: Tour de France

For Young, the fifth and final climb is what makes her the most nervous.

A grueling 19.1 km (roughly 11.9 miles) slog at a 7.2% gradient, riders will be tested with the most punishing portion of the race after having already completed over 100 km (roughly 62 miles), with 24 hairpin turns thrown in for good measure.

It is not just the climbs that riders fear, though, with a record-breaking heatwave also gripping large parts of Europe over the course of the summer.

Participants have been told that they could face highs of up to 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) on the day of the race.

The month of June was the region’s hottest on record, with the mountainous jewel of the Alps, Mont Blanc, seeing temperatures at its snow-covered peak rise above zero for the first time in recorded history.

For 46-year-old civil servant Denny Kearns, the chance to compete at this year’s L’Étape is one he is not taking for granted.

Originally due to take part in last year’s event, the Hastings native saw his world turned upside down when he was diagnosed with testicular cancer in April 2024.

With the cancer spreading to his abdomen and lungs, Kearns was forced to withdraw from the event and undergo an intense three-month period of chemotherapy.

Denny Kearns is looking to participate in his first L’Étape du Tour after missing last year's edition due to being diagnosed with testicular cancer.

“It was one of the toughest periods of my life,” Kearns told CNN Sports.

“I had trained for almost half a year and then overnight was told that all that work had been for nothing.

“The first question I asked the oncologist after my initial scan was: ‘How long until I can get back cycling?’

“The cancer was hard to accept, but being told I couldn’t compete in my bucket list race made it even tougher.”

Thankfully, Kearns’ treatment proved successful, and once he was given the all-clear from his doctors, he fixed his sights firmly on competing at this year’s event.

“I’m trying not to think about the climbs too much. When I start, it gives me the jitters!” Kearns said apprehensively.

“It is going to be my first time ever doing something like this, so I don’t fully know what to expect.

“The main thing for me is getting over that finish line. That’s when I’ll know that I’m finally back to being my old self and 100% healthy again.”

Note: Pogačar and Jeanjean's total times are from 2024 on stage 20, while Young and Kearns' are for their target times for 2025's stage 19. Source: Tour de France, L'Étape du Tour de France

Unlike the professional riders tackling Stage 19, the vast majority of L’Étape participants such as Young and Kearns must walk the training “tightrope” in the lead-up to the race.

Both balancing full-time jobs, the pair admit to their preparations being difficult to keep up with alongside the hectic nature of everyday life.

“It can get a bit much at times,” said Young. “I’m going out riding before and after work each day during the week.

“When the weekend comes around, my partner and I then head off to a hillier area of the UK to try and get some climbing practice in.”

Similarly, for Kearns, the training has come to consume much of his life since the turn of the new year.

“I began training in the winter with maybe six to eight hours per week of riding,” he said. “I’m now at the stage where I’m doing 12 hours plus per week of training.”

Much of this training has been indoors too, with Denny opting to train on a stationary bike in heated conditions to try and best replicate what he will face in the depths of the French summer.

In terms of goals and aspirations for the event itself, both participants winced when asked how they would shape up versus the professional riders.

Elite names like last year’s Tour winner, Tadej Pogačar, will be expected to complete the stage in and around the four-hour mark.

Last year’s L’Étape event, which ran through the Alpes-Maritimes near Nice, featured elevation and distances similar to this year’s iteration.

Pogačar won the same 133 km (roughly 82.6 miles) stage in just four hours and four minutes, averaging a speed of 32.6 kph (about 20.26 mph).

Note: Pogačar and Jeanjean's average speeds are from 2024 on stage 20, while Young and Kearns' estimates are projected on their target time using 2025 stage 19's distance and elevation. Source: Tour de France, L'Étape du Tour de France

Even when comparing the Slovenian’s time to that of elite amateur riders taking part in last year’s L’Étape, the difference is stark.

French rider Damien Jeanjean claimed first place in last year’s event with a time of four hours and 40 minutes. The impressive performance would have placed him around 100th in the Tour de France rankings for the same stage, but granted, the pro riders also have been riding anywhere between 15 to 18 stages before taking on the same course.

Moreover, the average finishing time for last year’s L’Étape riders was somewhere between six-and-a-half and seven hours, with an average speed of roughly 25 kph (about 15.5 mph).

Conversely, the average time for the professionals was roughly 4.5 hours, equating to an average speed of around 30 kph (about 18.6 mph).

For this year’s L’Étape participants who spoke to CNN Sports, the goal is not necessarily to challenge elite amateurs such as Jeanjean, but rather to push themselves as far as they can.

Young is aiming for anything close to seven hours, which she believes should see her finish in the top portion of the L’Étape female division.

Kearns, too, isn’t aiming to break any stage records but hopes to cross the line in just under eight hours.

“It has been a long journey to this point. I just can’t wait until the end of the race – that’s when I’ll know I’m finally fully recovered and back to being my old self.”



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Constance Marten and Mark Gordon found guilty in their baby’s death

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CNN
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When they wanted, Constance Marten and Mark Gordon could be warm and caring parents.

A family judge described interactions with their children as “excellent,” with the two able to act in a “loving and attentive manner.”

But a high-profile court case that stunned even seasoned legal figures painted a different picture, of a couple so fixated on each other and suspicious of outside authority they failed to care for their own child.

This week, Marten and Gordon were found guilty of manslaughter after their newborn daughter, Victoria, was found dead in a grocery bag inside a disused shed.  They will be sentenced later this year.

Police discovered Victoria’s body on March 1, 2023 – two days after her parents were arrested following a 53-day search.

Marten and Gordon had travelled across the UK with their newborn, hopping from city to city and ultimately sleeping in a tent despite frigid winter conditions, in an attempt to evade authorities.

They believed that Victoria would be taken from them after their previous four children were taken into foster care, London’s Metropolitan Police said in a statement released after their conviction.

The nationwide search and ensuing court cases gripped Britain, not least because of Marten’s privileged background and Gordon’s violent criminal past.

Baby Victoria's body was found by police in this shed in Brighton, England.

Marten, 38, grew up in a wealthy, aristocratic family with ties to the royal family. She was privately educated, travelled across Africa, and had worked as a journalist for Al Jazeera.

She met Gordon, whom she called her “soulmate,” at an incense shop in north London in 2014, according to Britain’s PA Media. Prosecutors said they were in a relationship from 2016.

Gordon, who at 51 is 13 years her senior, has a “significant criminal history, involving serious sexual violence” which he perpetrated as a teenager, court documents show.

A case detail from a Florida court shows that he was convicted of armed sexual battery, armed kidnapping, kidnapping, and burglary with a deadly weapon in 1989. He served 22 years in jail and was released in 2010, PA reported.

The couple’s relationship involved domestic violence, according to the documents from a London family court judge, written before Victoria’s body was found.

In 2019, when Marten was pregnant with the couple’s third child, Gordon either pushed or caused her to fall out of a window during an argument, causing “serious injuries,” the family court documents say. Gordon did not seek any medical assistance, “putting her life and that of the unborn child at risk,” they add.

The pair seemingly had an aversion to authority, repeatedly failing to engage with child protection officials despite concerns being voiced about their children’s wellbeing.

In January 2022, a judge found that the couple put their relationship “before all other considerations,” including their children’s health, and ordered that their four children were placed in the custody of authorities.

In late December 2022, when Marten was heavily pregnant with their fifth child, they went on the run.

In early January 2023, police in northern England launched a nationwide search for Gordon and Marten after finding a placenta in a burned-out car on a highway. The car, which was “completely gutted,” still had remnants of diapers and blankets inside, according to Greater Manchester Police.

“Evidence suggests that Constance has very recently given birth and neither her (nor) the baby have been assessed by medical professionals,” Greater Manchester Police said at the time.

In the following days, the couple travelled across the country, making several stops before ending up in Newhaven, a seaside town overlooking the English Channel.

The couple mostly travelled by taxi, paying hundreds of pounds per journey. Marten had roughly £19,000 (around $25,000) in her bank account when she was arrested, PA said.

CCTV footage from a hotel in Harwich, Essex, where the pair stayed on January 6, showed a baby underneath Marten’s coat, the Metropolitan Police said.

The next day, the couple were spotted buying a stroller, but it was too big for the newborn Victoria. They dumped the stroller in an alleyway and transferred the baby to a grocery bag, according to police.

CCTV footage of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon in Whitechapel, London, while they were on the run.
CCTV footage of Constance Marten in a shop in Brighton on the date of her arrest.

The public reported seeing the couple a number of times over the following weeks. On January 16, they were seen living in a tent on a nature reserve near Brighton. Temperatures in that area often fell below freezing at night. They lived in the tent for more than a month, police said.

The pair had previously been warned by social workers that it was “wholly unsuitable” for a baby to live in a tent, according to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) – advice given in relation to their other children who were taken into authorities’ care.

On February 27, 2023, the couple was arrested after being spotted in a store in Brighton. Baby Victoria was nowhere to be found.

Roadside interviews shared by the Metropolitan Police show officers asking the baby’s parents where she was. Marten did not answer the question, asking instead why she was being arrested. Gordon repeatedly asked for the police for food.

Two days later, Victoria’s decomposing body was found in a shed in a community garden where they had been staying. Pathologists were not able to confirm how she died.

Marten eventually told police that her baby had died while the couple was sleeping, according to London’s Metropolitan Police.

The CPS said it was not known exactly when Victoria was born or died, but it was believed she had been alive for some weeks and forced to endure the cold while living outdoors. CCTV footage showed her inadequately dressed, with no hat, socks or even a blanket.

“Their reckless actions were driven by a selfish desire to keep their baby no matter the cost – resulting in her tragic death,” Samantha Yelland, senior prosecutor for CPS London, said of Marten and Gordon. They ditched their cell phones and avoided using bank cards even to the point of being starving as they sought to dodge police, she added.

Court reporting from the couple’s trial at London’s Old Bailey describes the proceedings as chaotic.

The defendants repeatedly caused disruption in the courtroom, and often failed to show up to court.

At one point, PA said, Marten revealed information about Gordon’s rape conviction to the jury – even though this was deliberately not disclosed in court to ensure a fair trial.

Marten was represented by a total of 14 barristers across two trials – one that took place in 2024, and a retrial that ended on Monday, PA reported.

Gordon also sought the counsel of five lawyers across both trials, the agency said, but towards the end of the retrial, ended up representing himself.

A court artist sketch of Mark Gordon giving evidence at the Old Bailey in London on Wednesday May 21, 2025.

The retrial was requested by the CPS after the jury in 2024 could not reach a verdict on whether the pair were guilty of manslaughter, although they were convicted of charges including child cruelty. They lost an appeal against those convictions.

On Monday, the couple were unanimously found guilty of gross negligence manslaughter. UK media outlets reported that Gordon said from the dock that he would appeal.

According to PA, Judge Mark Lucraft said at one point that he had “never” before encountered the “sort of attitude” shown towards him by Gordon and Marten, adding that two teenagers who had been in court earlier that day were “rather better behaved – and they pleaded guilty to murder.”

Jaswant Narwal, Chief Crown Prosecutor at CPS London, called the trials “challenging,” saying in a statement after their conviction that “Marten and Gordon have shown little remorse for their actions, using different antics to frustrate and delay court proceedings.”

Det. Insp. Dave Sinclair, who first responded to the calls about the burned-out car that sparked the search for Victoria, called her death “completely avoidable” and solely down to her parents’ actions.

“I just feel really sad. This is such a tragic waste of life,” he said.

“There was ample opportunity for them to have sought help, to have addressed the welfare concerns for the baby, to have come forward to the authorities and to have got that help. And potentially there may have been a different outcome.”



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