Live updates: March Madness underway with the round of 64 in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament

If you’ve waited until the last second to fill out your bracket, but still want a chance to beat your friends and co-workers, follow these three simple rules to give yourself the best chance at cutting down the nets.

Rule 1: Go Chalk

Since 1985, No. 1 seeds have won 25 of the last 39 tournaments, a whopping 64% of the time. And on nine other occasions, it’s been won by a two-seed or three-seed. Right now, Duke is the most popular choice by fans to win it all – but the best value for your pool may lie with Houston, who far fewer people are choosing.

Rule #2: Embrace the Madness… Early on!

Everyone loves rooting for an upset, but keep most of your bold picks contained to the first weekend! If we agree that an upset is defined as beating a team with a five-plus seed advantage – we see about eight-and-a-half “upsets” per tournament. But 90% of those upsets happen in the first two rounds, so pick your Cinderellas stories and then send them home early. By the time you get to the Sweet 16, history tells us we’ll only see one more for the whole tournament.

We’ve identified Colorado State (12) and North Carolina (11) as two lower seeds with the best chance at winning their first round matchup – and Vegas apparently agrees. Both teams are currently favored to win their games.

Rule #3: A No. 2-seed Won’t Play Next Weekend

In the 39 tournaments since 1985, 42 different 2-seeds have been knocked off in the second round by a No. 7-seed or a No. 10-seed. Which means, on average – one of them should not be in your Sweet 16. Right now, the metrics tell us St. John’s has the toughest draw, with either Kansas or Arkansas lurking for them in the 2nd round.

So do you believe in the numbers… or do you believe in Rick Pitino and the Red Storm’s resurgence?

Either way, stick to these three rules, and you’ll be on your way to bragging rights over your friends and colleagues even if the next game you watch is your first.