Ebola outbreak: UN projects $3.6 billion cost for Africa in worst case

In a report released Tuesday, the United Nations Development Programme outlined several scenarios for the economic cost of the ongoing Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda. In the worst case, the epidemic could lead to a $3.6 billion cost for the African continent.

What marks will the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) leave on the region and the African continent?

Aside from the human toll of the disease – currently, 379 deaths have been confirmed by the World Health Organisation – its cost will also be economic.

In its report, the UNDP notably projected several scenarios of the potential economic impact of the outbreak.

In a best-case scenario, the epidemic will remain contained in the two currently affected countries, the DRC and Uganda. Uganda confirmed no new cases over the past week, according to the WHO. Meanwhile, transmission in the DRC is still active, and a case was confirmed for the first time in Mandima in Ituri Province.

In this scenario, the cost for the DRC’s GDP could reach $1 billion.

If the disease however spreads to further neighbouring countries, such as South Sudan, Rwanda or Angola, and if it coincides with the ongoing fuel crisis resulting from the war in Iran, its cost could jump to up to $3.6 billion.

In such a worst-case scenario, the UNDP also projected job losses reaching 328.000 across the African continent.