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Cardinals at a crossroads: Rival camps emerge in battle over new pope

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The pontificate of Pope Francis profoundly shook up the Catholic Church.

His restless 12-year-papacy, with its focus on a “poor church for the poor,” called on Catholicism to leave its comfort zone and pitch its tent among the poorest communities. Francis opened discussions on topics that were once viewed off limits, such as the role of women. He welcomed LGBTQ Catholics as “children of God” and opened the door for remarried divorcees to receive communion. He also generated attention with his strong critiques of economic injustice and calls to protect the environment.

Throughout his papacy, however, Francis faced fierce resistance from small, but noisy, conservative Catholic groups and a certain amount of indifference and silent resistance from bishops in the hierarchy.

Now, as 133 voting members of the College of Cardinals prepare for the conclave, the closed-doors process to elect Francis’ successor, they face a weighty choice: Build on the late pope’s reforms and vision, or slow things down and embark on a course correction.

CNN spoke to multiple cardinals and other church sources for this article. While some cardinals would prefer a safer option who focuses on unity, one who worked closely with Francis said such a choice would be the “kiss of death” for the church.

Those who will process into the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday to begin the process to elect a new pope could not have failed to notice the outpouring of affection for Francis after he died.

When Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the Dean of the College of Cardinals, talked warmly about Francis’ vision for the church as he delivered the homily at Francis’ funeral, the crowd gathered in St. Peter’s Square repeatedly applauded. And in East Timor, which Francis visited in 2024, around 300,000 people attended a Mass for the late pope on the same day as the funeral. All of this has led one retired cardinal to urge his confrères to take note.

Faithful attend Pope Francis' funeral ceremony at St Peter's Square in the Vatican on April 26, 2025.

“The people of God have already voted at the funerals and called for continuity with Francis,” Cardinal Walter Kasper, 92, a theological adviser to the late pope, told La Repubblica, an Italian daily newspaper.

In other words – read the room.

Francis’ supporters say that only a pope willing to continue what the late pontiff started will do so. But the politics of a papal election process are subtle. Anyone overtly campaigning to be pope immediately disqualifies themselves and the cardinals must vote according to what they discern to be the will of God. Still, that doesn’t mean simply sitting in their rooms and praying for divine inspiration on how to vote.

Each morning during the pre-conclave period the cardinals meet in the Paul VI synod hall for “general congregations.” Then, in the evenings, they often continue the discussions over a plate of pasta and a glass of wine, with several seen eating in trattorias in the Borgo Pio, a village-like quarter near the Vatican.

A fault line is already emerging. Some cardinals want the next pope to follow firmly in Francis’ footsteps and focus on the “diversity” of the universal church, whose axis has shifted away from Europe and the West. Others are calling on the next pope to emphasize “unity” – code for a more predictable, steady-as-she-goes approach.

Austen Ivereigh, a papal biographer and Catholic commentator, puts the two positions this way.

“The first (diversity) sees Francis as the first pope of a new era in the Church, showing us how to evangelize today, and how to hold together our differences in a fruitful way,” he explained.

“The second (unity) sees the Francis era as a disruption, an interruption, that now needs to be reined back by a return to a greater uniformity.”

Those pushing the “unity” line include some of the most vociferous critics of the late pope, such as Cardinal Gerhard Müller, the Vatican’s former doctrine chief who Francis replaced in 2017. Characterizing the last pontificate as a divisive authoritarian, he recently told the New York Times: “All dictators are dividing.”

Most cardinals will not share Müller’s characterization, and cardinals have repeatedly expressed appreciation for Francis’ concern for those at the margins and his ability to connect with people.

But a number of them are rallying around the “unity” slogan and have plenty of criticisms of the last papacy, including his decision to embark on a major, multi-year reform process – the synod – that has opened questions about women’s leadership and how power is exercised in the church.

Some also didn’t like Francis’ full-throated critiques of priests who like to wear elaborate vestments or his offering of blessings to same-sex couples, which has been rejected by some bishops in Africa. The feeling among the “unity” group, which has the support of some retired cardinals, is that the next pope needs less of the disruptive style of Francis.

Cardinal Vincent Nichols arrives for a general congregation meeting in the Vatican, as seen from Rome, Italy, April 28, 2025.

“His (the pope’s) first duty is to preserve and deepen the unity of the church,” Cardinal Vincent Nichols, Archbishop of Westminster, in London, told CNN. Nichols praised Francis’ pastoral gestures, although added: “There probably is a balancing up to do, but that is not primarily to do with arguments or teaching or doctrine.”

The leading “unity” candidate, it would appear, is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Holy See Secretary of State. He would not represent an obvious break with Francis, but his style would be very different. Parolin is a mild-mannered, thoughtful Italian prelate who oversees the Vatican’s diplomacy, which has included a provisional agreement with China over the appointment of bishops.

But Parolin’s sceptics point to his lack of experience working at the church’s grassroots and his flat delivery of a homily at a Mass for around 200,000 young people in St Peter’s Square, the day after Francis’ funeral. As he read from his notes, the cardinal seemed unable to engage the congregation, in stark contrast to Francis, who frequently spoke off-the-cuff and would often engage in a back and forth with young people.

Parolin has support among the large network of Holy See diplomats, of which he is a member. CNN’s Vatican analyst Elisabetta Pique, who is also a correspondent for La Nacion in Argentina, says that retired Italian cardinal and former diplomat, Beniamino Stella, 83, is considered a strong supporter of Parolin. He is reported to have “stunned” cardinals on April 30 with an attack on the late pope’s moves to give lay people governance roles in the church, saying Francis was wrong to separate ordination as a priest or bishop from the power of church governance. (Francis had appointed the first women to lead Vatican offices and sought to open more lay leadership roles.) Stella’s attack was surprising because he had been a trusted collaborator of Francis.

Others see the unity argument as superficially attractive but having the wrong focus. One of those is Cardinal Michael Czerny, who worked closely with Pope Francis, and has led the Vatican office for human development. He said that unity – while essential – cannot be a program or a policy.

“The terrible danger is, if you make this your obsession, and if you try to promote unity as your primary objective, you end up with uniformity,” he said. “And this is exactly what we don’t need. We spent decades now trying to learn to get beyond uniformity to a true catholicity, a true pluralism.”

Czerny added: “It’s interesting the words (unity and uniformity) are so close, but the difference is huge. I think one is the kiss of death, and the other is life and abundant life.”

Cardinal Michael Czerny leads a mass for the Jubilee of the World of Volunteering at St Peter's Square in The Vatican on March 09, 2025 in Vatican City.

Each night during the nine official days of mourning that follow the death of a pope, a cardinal presides at a Mass and has an opportunity to reflect on Francis’ pontificate. It’s harder for cardinals to be openly critical of the late pontiff while others among them are asking in these Masses how the cardinals can build on what Francis started.

“I think of the multiple reform processes of Church life initiated by Pope Francis, which extend beyond religious affiliations,” Cardinal Baldassare Reina, the vicar of Rome, said in a homily this week.

“People recognized him as a universal pastor. These people carry concern in their hearts, and I seem to discern in them a question: What will become of the processes that have begun?”

That need to continue the reforms begun by Francis could favor a candidate such as Cardinal Mario Grech, who leads the synod office, and which has showcased the diversity of the church. The reform-minded German cardinal Reinhard Marx has been among those arguing for a pope who continues in the line of Francis, as has Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg, who played a leading role in the synod.

A “diversity” candidate could come from Asia or be closely connected to the church’s frontline missions. In this vein, there is some talk of Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, but he is not the only possibility.

The group of cardinals choosing Francis’ successor is a diverse body drawn from virtually every corner of the globe; during his pontificate Francis dramatically re-shaped the body of cardinals, making appointments to countries that had never had a cardinal before.

But it means that many of them don’t know each other well, and during the discussions in the Paul VI synod hall, the cardinals have been wearing name badges. The intense media interest also seems to have startled cardinals unused to being swarmed by groups of reporters and cameras when they enter or leave the Vatican.

It is much harder to predict how such a diverse body is going to vote. However, it seems the cardinals from the “peripheries,” who represent the shift in the Catholic Church’s axis away from Europe, largely share the late pontiff’s vision and are primarily focused on how the next pope responds to the crises facing the globe.

Cardinal Charles Maung Bo at St Mary's Cathedral in Yangon, Myanmar on April 22, 2025.

Charles Bo, the first cardinal from Myanmar, who was appointed by Francis in 2015 and wants to see continuity with Francis’ reforms, told CNN in an email the next pope must “pursue peace without pause” and be a voice of moral authority which “calls humanity back from the edge of destruction.”

“Religions must unite in a common cause to save humanity,” he said. “The world urgently needs a new breath of hope – a synodal journey that chooses life over death, hope over despair. The next pope must be that breath!”

The cardinals entering the Sistine Chapel next week for conclave are not just casting their vote for a new pope, but making a critical decision that will impact the church for years to come.



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Live updates: Israel attacks Iran nuclear sites, Tehran retaliation, US position

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Israel’s attack on Iran is unlikely to push Iran toward a weakened position at the negotiating table on nuclear talks, Iran experts said, adding that it is more likely to trigger a war the Trump administration has sought to avoid.

“It is difficult to believe that Israel would and could have attacked at this scale without US knowledge and green light,” US foreign policy expert and former US State Department adviser Vali Nasr said on X.

US President Donald Trump “may have calculated this will soften Iran’s position, but just as he was wrong that maximum pressure will bring Iran to the table he will (be) proven wrong that Israeli attack could give him a diplomatic win,” he said.

Nasr added: “He may end up getting the war that he and the MAGA base have said they don’t want.”

Washington has long sought to limit Tehran’s nuclear capacity, with the most recent negotiations in Rome last month ending with no agreement. A sixth round of US-Iran talks had been scheduled for Sunday in Oman — and it’s not clear if it will go ahead.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, said today’s strikes were “not a pre-emptive attack on Iran alone,” but rather Israel “seeking to kill Trump and America’s chance to secure a deal with Iran that prevents” Iran from building nuclear weapons.

Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group’s Iran project director, said that Israel’s attack likely “blew up Trump’s diplomacy with Iran.”

“What Trump does next could determine whether his presidency will be consumed by another war in the Middle East or not,” he said.

Vaez added that Israel’s strikes have opened the door to further suffering on both sides.



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British pubs have their own set of rules. Here’s what you need to know

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In 1943, as American troops were dispersed around British air bases to join the Allied war effort, a short informative film, “How to Behave in Britain”, was produced. One section was dedicated to the “dos” and “don’ts” of a British pub, and used a roistering soldier — who tosses cash at the barmaid, hoots at a Scotsman in a kilt and brags how he and his large family enjoy steak for breakfast — to demonstrate exactly what not to do. Our young braggart ends up being disappeared in a puff of smoke, and rightly so.

Over 80 years on, the British pub has changed a lot, but it still retains a number of unusual quirks for newcomers. It pays to come to the UK armed with pub sense, and so in that spirit, here is a 21st-century guide to enjoying the great British boozer.

There are as many genres of pub as there are beer, and if you tried to drink your way through them all in one day, you’d have to be poured into a cab at the end of it. Here are the main categories:

Wet pub: Simply put, a pub which only serves drinks, not food. Not to be confused with the White Swan in Twickenham, London, whose riverside beer garden regularly floods, leaving drinkers stranded.

Many pubs have been around for centuries.

Historic tavern or inn: Roaring wood fires. Flagstone floors. Low-beamed ceilings. Horse brasses on the walls. A resident ghost. These pubs, some dating back many hundreds of years, are steeped in the stories of those who’ve drank here before, though many these days also have Wi-Fi — the best of both worlds.

Gin palace: Described in an 1835 essay by Charles Dickens as “the gay building with the fantastically ornamented parapet, the illuminated clock, the plate-glass windows surrounded by stucco rosettes, and its profusion of gas-lights in richly-gilt burners…,” many of these showy 19th century drinking emporiums are still in business today — and they serve much more than just gin.

Craft beer pub: Emerging over the past couple of decades, the focus in these less orthodox establishments is on quality beer, often more varied, alcoholic and expensive than in other pubs.

Brew pub/brewery tap: A concept familiar with Americans, this is a chance to sip straight from the source, often in sight of the shimmering steel equipment that has magicked up the liquid now making you feel fuzzy.

Gastro pub: The Eagle in Farringdon, London was Britain’s first gastropub, opening in 1991 for those “who wanted a restaurant but couldn’t afford it.” These food-forward pubs subsequently boomed in the 1990s and 2000s, and remain popular today.

Sports pub: Similar in some ways to an American sports bar, British sports pubs rarely screen the NFL, but always show Premier League football. Most screens are not behind the bar, but in some awkward corner of the pub next to the toilets.

Flat-roofed pub: Dodgy beer, an edgy clientele and accompanying weapon dogs are all synonymous with flat-roofed pubs — “forbidding cubes of wood and brick that squat in the shadow of tower blocks,” as the UK’s Guardian newspaper once put it. It can also be difficult to see what’s going on from the outside, which some regard as tantamount to climbing into the back of a strange, unmarked van. That said, not all flat-roofed pubs are made equally, and a handful, like The Laurieston Bar in Glasgow, have become legendary.

Few pubs have table service. Most drinks are served to customers over the bar.

Brewery/chain pub: Not to be confused with a brewpub, these pubs operate under the ownership of a brewery or chain (including major players like Greene King, Young’s, and Craft Union). Though some of these establishments are pleasant enough, they can lack beer choice. I have seen four identical beer pumps lined up next to one another, all pouring the same pedestrian ale.

Freehouse: The landlords/ladies here aren’t tied to a brewery contract, and can therefore serve whatever they like. There’s usually a good beer selection because of it.

Micropub: The micropub trend — that is, pint-sized independent pubs with excellent beer and spartan interiors — started with The Butcher’s Arms in Herne, Kent in 2005, and has since swept the country, particularly southeast England. They may tell you off for taking a phone call, but they will also give you free cheese on a Sunday.

Wetherspoon: A genre of pub unto itself.

The pub sign — found swinging from the front of most establishments — dates to a time when few drinkers were literate, and would instead be drawn towards a colorful illustration, promising liquid treasures inside. Most today bear an image, along with the name.

Clockwise from top left: The Adam & Eve in London, The Kings Arms in Wiltshire, The Old Monkey in Manchester and The Bucket of Blood in Cornwall.

Common branding includes The Red Lion, The Royal Oak and The King’s Arms, but more peculiar names have real cachet — think The Bucket of Blood, The Pyrotechnists Arms, Dirty Dick’s, The Frog and Rhubarb, and I Am The Only Running Footman. Also look out for scores of Moon Under Waters (see Wetherpoon, above).

If you’re ordering drinks, and drinks alone, go up to the bar. Though handheld menus do exist, they’re not used all that much; a board behind the bar will advise you which beers are pouring, and you can also squint at the labels on the hand pumps (more of which later). If it’s a beer you’re unfamiliar with, a good bar person will offer you a free taster.

Though Britain was built on queuing, the pub is one setting where standing in line is not how it’s done. Getting served — especially at a busy bar — involves gradually easing yourself towards the front. Once you’re within touching distance of the bar, you must win the attention of whoever’s on the other side of it, being neither too meek (a gentle smile and nod works well) or too bold (wave a credit card in the air, and you’ll be waiting all night).

Drinks are often bought in

It’s the perfect balancing act, and one of the Brits’ best-loved pastimes. In friendlier pubs, customers will kindly point out who’s been waiting the longest. However, since Covid (when table service in pubs was mandatory), certain younger drinkers have started forming orderly queues. “This attempt at politeness is actually causing chaos at bars across the country,” fretted The Independent in 2024.

If you’re in a group of friends, the traditional way to buy drinks is in a “round” — namely taking it in turns to buy everyone else’s drinks. Get the first round in, and you can relax and enjoy the rest of the session. That is, unless the round circles back to you, just when everyone is hitting the expensive whiskey. That’s a chance you’ll have to take.

Cards are accepted in pretty much all pubs. Most pubs still take cash, too. I know of one small pub in the Surrey countryside which accepts Bitcoin.

“If you like beer, you’d better like it warm,” informs “How to Behave in Britain”. But the “warm beer” slur is a misnomer. The average pub now serves chilled lagers, pale ales and stouts (often Guinness, which has an entire pouring ritual of its own).

Contrary to popular myth, British beer isn't typically served warm. If it is, there's probably something wrong with it.

As for “real ales” — that is, traditional cask British ale taking the form of various bitters, pales, IPAs, stouts and milds — this should be served at cellar temperature. If your ale is genuinely warm, either there’s something wrong with it, or you’re sitting too close to the fire.

Just like the pubs themselves, these beers revel in ridiculous names: Bishop’s Finger, Release the Quacken, Old Peculiar, Pigswill.

Beer in Britain — whether an icy Danish lager or a robust porter from Durham — is traditionally served in a pint glass. Unlike in America, all pints in the UK are the same measurement of liquid: an imperial pint (20 fluid ounces). This measurement is taken very seriously, with CAMRA (Campaign For Real Ale) even lobbying the British Government to enshrine in law beer drinkers’ right to receive a full pint, foam excluded.

Most pint glasses are straight-sided but traditional beer drinkers sometimes request their beer to be served a “jug” (a confusing term as it’s not a jug, but a handled glass mug with miniature windows). You’ll only encounter the infamous “yard of ale” in exceptional circumstances, but it is not entirely mythical.

Beer is usually served in pints — a pour of 20 fluid ounces. Half-pints are also available.

Conversely if you’re taking it slow, it’s not uncommon to order beer in a half pint. The great Rick Steves once wrote in a guide book that “it’s almost feminine for a man to order just a half,” but that was a while ago now. (Steves also said he orders quiche with his beer, and I have literally never seen a slice of quiche served in a pub.) Craft beer establishments will often also serve in two-third and one-third pint measures, a relatively new concept that has some die-hard pint swiggers muttering into their bitter.

If you’re a real local, you may have your own special mug hanging behind the bar, possibly crafted from pewter. If so, you’re probably also in line to have a bronze plaque installed on your favorite chair/table after you go to that Great Pub in the Sky. You may also be the pub bore, more of which imminently.

Gin and tonic: A summery classic, born of colonial settlers lauding it up in India, who drank the tonic for the quinine in order to stave off malaria.

Rum and Coke: The sugary elixir once favoured by The Beatles.

House wine: For the thriftiest wine option, order the “house red,” “house white” or “house rosé,” and pray that it’s tolerable.

Cider/perry: Always alcoholic, this fermented apple/pear juice has been quaffed in industrial quantities by farmers and laborers for centuries, and is a popular summer drink among Brits. If your host starts pouring it from a cardboard box, don’t panic: It will taste far better than the sparkling cider coming from the taps.

Lime and soda/blackcurrant and soda: A traditional non-alcoholic option. Some pubs will only charge you around 50p for a glass; other, less scrupulous, ones will make you pay nigh-on the price of a beer. If in doubt, enquire first.

Tipping: With table service reserved for food, and bar tabs a rarity, tipping isn’t common in British pubs. If you’ve especially enjoyed the hospitality, you can always say “Have one for yourself” to the bar person, to which they’ll add on the price of another drink to the round.

Wetherspoons pubs are a breed unto themselves.

Sharing a table: While some drinkers like to keep themselves to themselves, it’s normal to share larger tables with whoever else is sitting there. At friendlier pubs — especially micropubs — you may well get talking to your new neighbor. The topic of conversation will involve the weather, sports and — after a couple of drinks — politics. However, if you’re foreign to these parts, you’ve already got your icebreaker.

The pub bore: Like every American bar, each British pub has its own barfly, or “pub bore,” who will lecture you ad nauseum about everything they know to be true, while taking little interest in your own attempts at contributing to the conversation. Avoid being sucked in where possible, and never get into a round.

Splitting the bag: If enjoying snacks, it’s customary to split open the bag, and share the contents with your table. Speaking of which…

Food and snacks

The Sunday roast is a regular weekly fixture on many pub menus.

Salty crisps and nuts have kept many a drinking session going far longer than it should have. Crisps, i.e. chips, are a staple, with Britain producing a new flavor every few minutes. Still, the all-time crisp classics are considered to be: ready salted, salt & vinegar and cheese & onion. You can read more about the history of crisps here.

Pork scratchings — crunchy, salt-cured chunks of pork fat — are found in most pubs. You will either fall in love with them, or spend the rest of your life apologizing to pigs whenever you see them. Either way, be advised that they can shatter your teeth (pork scratchings that is, not pigs).

One level up is the pork pie (a lump of cold pork meat wrapped in gelatin and pastry, and served with eye-watering English mustard), and the Scotch egg, which reached its culinary zenith in 2016 when Anthony Bourdain shared one of these mincemeat-encased delicacies with Nigella Lawson.

All sorts of “pub grub” is available these days, classics including steak & ale pie, scampi, lasagne, and hunter’s chicken. (Fish and chips is NEVER as good in a pub as it is from a fish and chip shop.) The holy grail of pub food is the Sunday roast, or roast dinner, served specifically on that one day of that week, and consisting of roasted meats, roast potatoes, Yorkshire puddings, stuffing and a medley of veg. While many pub Sunday roasts are sub-par, when you find a decent one, everything is well with the world.

Some pubs provide board games for customers.

“Pub” is shorthand for “public house,” and the best establishments feel like an extension of your own front room. The number one pastime in a pub is catching up with friends; which usually involves moaning about work/the weather/the friends who didn’t come to the pub. Watching sports (football, rugby, cricket, snooker, darts) is a major draw too. Other pub entertainment includes:

Reading the paper: Many pubs used to lay on a stack of papers for customers to get stuck into, although many pub goers now read the “paper” on their phone.

Pub quiz: A stalwart of the midweek pub experience, the pub quiz is an opportunity for you and accomplices to show off your (lack of) general knowledge, with the chance to win a £50 bar tab. As with pub/beer names, the most ludicrous pub quiz team name is also considered to be the best — even if you come last in the quiz, you’ll be the heroes of the evening.

Darts: The modern game of throwing small arrows into a circular board was formalised in a pub in west London in 1926. It’s currently enjoying a renaissance, thanks to darts superstars like Luke Littler and Fallon Sherrock.

Pool: Just as in the States, shooting pool is a popular bar in Britain. It’s unusual to see a snooker table in a pub, and if you see a billiards table, you may have walked into a stately home by mistake. The antiquated game of bar billiards, on the other hand, can still be found in a select few pubs, although — *whisper it* — the game has Russian origins.

Board games: Chess, Cluedo and Monopoly are among the favorites to be mulled over during a rainy Sunday afternoon.

Jukebox: Channeling the spirit of 1950s American diners, some older British pubs pride themselves on their jukebox — an opportunity to foist your musical choice on everyone within listening distance. Many jukeboxes now are digital, though occasionally you’ll find the real McCoy.

Pubs are everywhere — including on the remote Knoydart peninsula in Scotland, reached only via a 30-minute boat ride or an 18-mile, two-day hike over rugged terrain.

Though British bars and restaurants rarely excel at continental style al fresco drinking and dining, a number of pubs are blessed with a pub garden. These are often hidden around the back; sometimes pubs will proclaim in bold lettering from the front: “SECRET GARDEN.”

British weather, naturally, does everything in its power to diminish the magic of the pub garden, although this doesn’t stop the average Brit sitting outside and shivering into their pint, because even though it’s blowing a moderate gale, it’s July, and they know their rights.

Up until 1988, pubs were required to close between 3.30 p.m. and 5 p.m., meaning there were one and a half hours in the afternoon where locals might be seen drifting around the village in a zombie-like state, occasionally pawing at the pub windows.

Most pubs stop serving alcohol at 11 p.m.

This is rarely the case now. Though individual pub opening times vary, they tend to be from around midday to 11 p.m. A small bell is clanged (sometimes with almost too much fervour, by an exhausted publican), to warn you when to get your last drink in. There is then a mad rush to get in a valedictory pint, and drink it before the bell tolls a second time.

This signals it’s time to leave, or as the famous soap opera landlady Peggy Mitchell would say, “get outta my pub”.

On “non school nights” (that is, Fridays and Saturdays), it’s not unusual to give into primal instincts, and go in search of meat. If it’s earlier in the night, a curry is often voted for. If last orders have been rung at the pub and the curry houses are shut, it’s commonplace to order a takeout doner kebab: lengths of greasy lamb meat anointed with garlic and spicy chili sauce, which will make you regret everything the next morning all that much more.

Will Noble is the editor of Londonist, which has its own London pub database.



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The UK, Germany and Canada have slashed foreign aid this year, deepening damage done by US cuts, analysis shows

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Western countries have slashed foreign aid budgets this year and reductions will steepen in 2026, with the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Canada cutting the most, according to a new analysis from the Center for Global Development (CGD).

The aid cuts will mean “significant losses” for many developing nations, according to the analysis from the DC-based think tank, shared exclusively with CNN. Ethiopia is projected to lose the most aid in nominal terms, with Jordan, Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo also hit particularly hard.

Smaller nations will also be hammered by the reduction in foreign aid, with Lesotho, Micronesia and Eswatini each losing around 50% of their aid.

“It’s setting fire to the bold ambitions to solve poverty and transform developing countries,” Lee Crawfurd, one of the authors of the report, told CNN. “It’s some of the poorest, most fragile places in the world that are going to be hardest hit.”

The analysis looked at projections of bilateral aid – money provided directly to another country rather than routed through multilateral organizations such as United Nations agencies or the World Bank – for 2025 and 2026.

The US is projected to cut the most, with a projected 56% reduction compared to levels two years ago.

The Trump administration’s gutting of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) earlier this year has already left a hole in many international aid budgets, and several other Western nations are following suit rather than filling the void.

“A big, big chunk of overall cuts in the next couple of years are going to be from the US pulling out, rather than other countries. But these other countries are making things worse,” said Crawfurd, a senior research fellow at the CGD.

The UK aid cuts are estimated to represent a roughly 39% reduction compared to 2023 levels of spending. Meanwhile, Germany is cutting about 27%, Canada 25% and France 19% of their international aid budgets.

The true level of aid cuts remains unclear, as the Trump administration’s proposed budget and other government proposals are still making their way through legislatures. But some funding cuts are almost guaranteed.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced in February that his government would increase the UK’s defense spending by cutting its aid budget to 0.3% of gross national income in 2027, its lowest level since 1999.

Many organizations and aid workers have raised alarm about European governments pitting aid budgets against defense spending.

“Cutting the already lean aid budget is a false economy and will only increase division and amounts to a betrayal of the world’s most vulnerable people,” said Halima Begum, head of Oxfam GB. “It is a false dichotomy to pit international cooperation to tackle poverty against national security interests in order to avoid tax increases.”

A sign for GIZ is seen in February 2017.

Crawfurd said that bilateral aid is a “really small part of government budgets” and the money for defense or security could be found elsewhere. “It’s a choice… it’s a political choice,” he added.

The think tank wrote in its analysis that “one striking takeaway is that some countries are projected to lose large amounts of ODA (official development assistance) simply because of who their main donors are – while others are projected to lose very little” – a game of chance, with losses not matching up to the recipient country’s needs.

Yemen, for example, is projected to experience a 19% fall in its bilateral funding compared to 2023, while its “comparable” neighbor country Somalia is projected to lose about 39%.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has also warned that multilateral aid cuts are threatening efforts to tackle 44 of the highest-priority, protracted humanitarian crises. As of April, only 11.9% of the funding for UN response plans had been covered.

“Every year, the UN has been helping more than 100 million people in the world as they go through the worst time of their lives in wars and disasters. But let’s be clear: we won’t reach the level of funding in 2025 that we’ve seen in previous years,” Anja Nitzsche, OCHA’s chief of partnerships and resource mobilization told CNN in a statement. “Vulnerable families are being left without food, clean water, healthcare, shelter or protection in places such as Sudan, Yemen, Ukraine, Myanmar and Afghanistan.”

The CGD is urging Western donors to reallocate aid to the poorest countries to try to “ensure that resources are directed to populations in greatest need.”

Western countries also need to improve coordination to mitigate further damage, especially as they are withdrawing from countries receiving aid, the think tank said.

In some countries, the cuts will change who the largest donor is, which “can lead to major shifts in what gets funded and how,” according to the CGD. For example, Portugal will likely overtake the US in aid to Angola, and Japan is projected to overtake France in Egypt. “A new lead donor may not continue the same programs” or may take time to get up and running, according to the analysis.

Giving a larger share of aid to multilateral organizations can also help improve international cooperation and cut down on duplication of aid efforts.

“Coordination is an ongoing challenge,” Crawfurd told CNN. “The easiest way to do that is just to fund big multilateral funds like the World Bank.”



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