Migrant backlash risks South Africa’s economy

South Africa is seeing a new wave of anti-migrant protests, driven by anger over unemployment, crime, and years of weak economic growth. But economists warn that if thousands of foreign workers leave, it could damage the very businesses and jobs protesters say they want to protect.

Anti-migrant sentiment has been rising for months, culminating in a national march on the 30th of June. The demonstrations were largely peaceful, but fears of violence have already pushed thousands of African migrants to leave the country.

Their departure could create labour shortages in sectors that heavily rely on foreign workers — from construction and agriculture to delivery services and local shops — and further weaken South Africa’s vast informal economy.

United Nations data shows that about 2.6 million migrants were living in South Africa in 2024 — roughly 5% of the population. Estimates from the OECD and the International Labour Organisation suggest they contribute around 9% to South Africa’s GDP.

The protests are already disrupting parts of the retail sector.

Foreign-owned “spaza shops” — small informal convenience stores often run from shacks, garages, or shipping containers — are a backbone of the informal economy, supporting wholesalers, landlords, and local workers.

Sixty60, the online grocery delivery arm of South Africa’s biggest food retailer, Shoprite Group, has also been hit. Company data shows that fewer than one in four of its drivers are South African.

The anti-migrant movement has been building for years, as South Africa struggles with slow growth and deep economic inequality.

In June, the World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast for South Africa from 1.4% to 1%. At the same time, official data shows unemployment at nearly one in three people, leaving 8.1 million South Africans out of work.

These pressures have fueled resentment towards migrants. Yet an ILO study based on labour force surveys found that when more migrants join the workforce, employment for South African-born workers also tends to rise.