Tigrayan forces preparing offensive against federal gov, Addis Ababa warns

Fears are mounting in Ethiopia over reports that forces in the northern Tigray region are preparing an offensive against the federal government in the coming days.

A two-year war between Tigray and Addis Ababa killed more than 600,000 people before a peace deal was agreed in 2022.

But the truce has increasingly come under strain and direct clashes broke out again late last year.

In an editorial for Al Jazeera, Ethiopia’s intelligence chief and African affairs minister said the Tigray People’s Liberation Front was preparing to trigger a new conflict with the help of neighboring Eritrea. The hardline party has been banned from political activity but it remains all-powerful in Tigray and has its own army.

The piece called on “everyone with any leverage or influence over the TPLF and its patrons in Asmara” to exert maximum pressure on them to avoid a relapse into conflict.”

The federal authorities have previously accused the TPLF of growing closer to Eritrea, although the group has denied this.

“It is imperative that everyone with any leverage or influence over the TPLF and its patrons in Asmara exert maximum pressure on them to avoid a relapse into conflict,” the piece said.

It went on to warn that “a resumption of hostilities would be dangerous and would have serious regional consequences”.

The authors also claimed meetings are taking place between Eritreans and members of the TPLF in the Eritrean capital, the Tigrayan capital Mekelle, and Sudan.

In May, Ethiopia and Sudan — engulfed by civil war since 2023 — traded accusations that each had violated the other’s territory and were supporting insurgent forces.

‘Clear violation’

The TPLF effectively ruled the whole of Ethiopia for nearly 30 years until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rose to power in 2018.

Abiy’s government barred the TPLF from political activity last year, but it remains all-powerful in Tigray, with its own military.

At the end of April, the group said they had reinstated a regional parliament, which had been deemed illegitimate.

“In clear violation of the (2022 peace deal), the rump TPLF has dismantled the regional interim administration and set up its own illegal administration,” the editorial said.

Tigray had a population of around six million people before the war. Around one million remain displaced from the conflict and the region is financially drained, as federal subsidies have been cut.

The region did not take part in nationwide elections held on June 1, which Abiy is widely expected to win when results are announced.