Africa
Kenya set to surpass Ethiopia as East Africa’s largest economy in 2025 – IMF

Kenya is on track to become East Africa’s largest economy by 2025, overtaking regional rival Ethiopia, according to the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF estimates Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP) will reach $132 billion, surpassing Ethiopia’s projected $117 billion. The shift marks a significant change in the regional economic hierarchy, driven by contrasting policy choices and macroeconomic conditions in both countries.
Ethiopia’s recent move to devalue its currency, the birr, by more than 55% in 2024 helped the country unlock $3.4 billion in IMF support and $16.6 billion in World Bank funding, aiding efforts to restructure debt and stabilize its economy. However, the decision has led to a surge in inflation and import costs, placing additional strain on a country already grappling with the effects of internal conflict and climate disruptions.
In contrast, Kenya has demonstrated relative macroeconomic resilience. The Kenyan shilling appreciated by 21% in 2024, becoming the world’s best-performing currency, according to market analysts. The surge was supported by a successful $1.5 billion Eurobond issuance, record-high diaspora remittances totaling $4.94 billion, and robust growth in agricultural and manufacturing exports.
Despite strong fundamentals, Kenya has faced its share of domestic turbulence. The government’s controversial Finance Bill 2024, which introduced sweeping tax changes, sparked widespread public protests and led to significant investor losses. In response to the unrest, the government withdrew from a $3.6 billion, four-year IMF program, raising concerns over policy continuity.
Even so, Kenya’s economy remains relatively stable, thanks to its diversified structure and improved investor confidence. The country is weathering the global economic slowdown better than many of its regional peers, despite the IMF forecasting a dip in global growth from 3.3% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024.
Ethiopia had long been seen as East Africa’s economic powerhouse, buoyed by its large population and ambitious infrastructure projects. But recent economic headwinds have exposed vulnerabilities in its development model. Meanwhile, Kenya’s open-market approach, diversified revenue streams, and currency stability have enhanced its regional position.
While both countries face ongoing economic uncertainty amid global trade tensions and inflationary pressures, Kenya appears better positioned in the near term.
If current trends hold, Kenya is set to officially become East Africa’s largest economy in 2025, marking a turning point in the regional economic landscape.
Africa
Ramaphosa suspends police minister amid corruption allegations

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu following serious allegations made by General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, a top police official. Mkhwanazi accused Mchunu and Deputy Police Commissioner Shadrack Sibiya of interfering in sensitive investigations and colluding with criminal syndicates.
The suspension comes amid growing concern over alleged political interference within key law enforcement agencies. President Ramaphosa announced the decision publicly, stating, “In order for the Commission to execute its functions effectively, I have decided to put the Minister of Police Mr Senzo Mchunu on a leave of absence with immediate effect. The Minister has undertaken to give his full cooperation to the Commission to enable it to work properly.”
Ramaphosa has appointed Professor Firoz Cachalia as acting Minister of Police. Meanwhile, Mkhwanazi further alleged that Mchunu and Sibiya disbanded a critical crime-fighting unit that was investigating a string of politically motivated killings. These killings were reportedly linked to organized criminal networks.
The President also outlined the scope of the inquiry. “The Commission will investigate the role of current or former senior officials in certain institutions who may have aided or abetted the alleged criminal activity; or failed to act on credible intelligence or internal warnings; or benefited financially or politically from a syndicate’s operations,” Ramaphosa said.
Opposition parties have criticized the President for not taking stronger action. They argue that placing Mchunu on leave falls short of accountability and have called for his immediate dismissal instead.
Africa
Cameroon’s Paul Biya, 92, announces bid for another term

Cameroon’s longtime leader, President Paul Biya, has officially announced he will run for another term in office, ending months of speculation over his political future. The 92-year-old made the announcement on social media, stating his continued determination to serve and promising that “the best is yet to come.”
Biya has been at the helm of Cameroon for over 40 years, making him the second longest-serving president in Africa. His decision to seek re-election has sparked criticism from opposition figures and human rights advocates. One prominent activist described the announcement as a clear sign of Cameroon’s stalled political transition, adding that the country is in urgent need of democratic change and accountable leadership.
In 2018, Biya secured a controversial victory with over 70 percent of the vote. That election was marked by allegations of fraud, low voter turnout, and violence.
The country’s conflict-ridden English-speaking regions have been deeply affected by a separatist crisis that has forced thousands of students out of school and led to deadly clashes between security forces and armed groups.
Throughout his presidency, Biya has faced accusations of corruption and failure to address national grievances. His frequent absences from the country for medical treatment have also raised concerns about his health and ability to govern effectively.
As the country heads toward another election cycle, Biya’s bid for another term promises to be a polarizing chapter in Cameroon’s already complex political landscape.
Africa
Gabon launches electoral process for September 27 local and legislative elections

The electoral process for Gabon’s local and legislative elections is officially underway.
The timetable for the September 27 vote has been announced and members of the national election commission have been sworn in by the Constitutional Court.
The revision of electoral rolls across the country begins on July 14 and continues until August 12. This will ensure new voters are added and deceased or ineligible voters removed from the rolls. It will also register any changes of voting centre and update personal data.
People aged 18 and over with a Personal Identification Number (PIN) are automatically registered and need only choose their polling center.
Local electoral commissions will be set up by July 26 and deployed across the country and abroad.
Nominations for the legislative and local elections are open from July 27 to August 7.
Fifth Republic
The Ministry of the Interior and national election commission reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring “credible, transparent and peaceful” elections, and called on citizens to play an active part in building the Fifth Republic.
Last week, two years after seizing power in a coup, President Brice Oligui Nguema unveiled a new political party, the Democratic Union of Builders, or UDB. Oligui secured nearly 95 percent of the vote in April’s presidential election.
The launch of the UDB appears to signal Oligui’s intent to transition from military leader to long-term political figure. While he initially presented himself as a reformer leading a transitional government, the creation of a political party gives structure to his leadership and a platform for future governance.
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