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Analysis: Putin’s stalling on the US plan for Ukraine looks like an attempt to play Trump

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CNN
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President Donald Trump rarely stops bragging about his “great relationship” with Vladimir Putin.

A skeptical world will soon find out whether the supposed mind-meld counts for anything.

The Russian president, author of an unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine, responded in time-honored Moscow fashion Thursday to the US plan for an immediate ceasefire that the administration forced Kyiv into supporting. Putin produced a long set of obfuscations and new demands that would be unacceptable to Ukraine. But they may have been designed to tempt a US president who is desperate for the kind of win a truce would represent.

Putin did not reject Trump’s overture. He called it “great and correct” and said he supported it in principle. He was careful not to alienate a US president who has already offered a series of concessions to Russia before formal peace talks begin, including an understanding that Ukraine would never have a path to NATO membership.

But Putin’s objections and calls for further discussions, including with Trump, were an attempt to buy time, with his troops on the cusp of pushing Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk region — one of the few bargaining chips Kyiv would have at future peace talks.

Putin also raised questions about the monitoring of any ceasefire, and whether Ukraine would be allowed to rearm during any cessation of fighting, in a way that suggested he was already seeking to shape any eventual agreement to ensure Russian dominance. Putin also referred to the need to tackle the “root causes” of the war. This is code for a number of Russian grievances that include the existence of a democratic government in Kyiv. It also refers to Moscow’s claims that it is threatened by NATO expansion after the Cold War and to its desire to see alliance troops withdrawn from former communist states once in the Soviet Union’s orbit, such as Poland and Romania.

Russia’s response is out of its classic diplomatic playbook, which typically seeks to suck interlocutors into exhausting negotiations that stack up delays and conditions that enable the Kremlin to pursue its strategic goals in the meantime.

Thursday’s events showed just how hard it will be for the Trump administration to move Russia away from its position and into serious negotiations on a ceasefire.

Russia’s stalling contrasted with Trump’s rush for a valuable breakthrough as his trade policies set off stock market slumps and cast a cloud over the economy. “I think we’re going to be in very good shape to get it done. We want to get it over with,” Trump said at the Oval Office on Thursday, in an outburst of optimism that jarred with reality.

Trump put the best spin on Putin’s response, saying he’d issued a “very promising statement, but it wasn’t complete.” He added: “Now we’re going to see whether or not Russia’s there. And if they’re not, it will be a very disappointing moment for the world.” Trump’s optimism was understandable as he seeks to build momentum for a fledgling diplomatic initiative. But his willingness to ignore a new set of onerous conditions from Putin made for a stark contrast with his fury when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sat in the Oval Office and tried to explain why he wouldn’t trust Russia’s word in a peace deal without security guarantees.

Retired Adm. James Stavridis said Thursday the Russian leader was staking out a careful line: “If you put it on a scale between ‘nyet,’ ‘no,’ and ‘da,’ ‘yes,’ he’s right in the middle,” he told CNN’s Jim Sciutto. Stavridis, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said the Russian president would take a couple of punches from Trump but would not stop pressing toward his own goals.

Trump repeated Thursday his frequent refrain that there is ocean between the continental US and the largest land war in Europe since World War II. Those closer to the threat are far less optimistic about America’s peace proposals. “I am pessimistic and skeptical about Russia’s intentions and Russia’s will to proceed with a just and sustainable peace,” Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds told Isa Soares on CNN International. He said that Russia was using its typical “salami” tactics to reach its strategic goals, namely by slicing up its overarching political goals and dealing with them “piece by piece.”

A person walks through the remains of a residential building in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, that was destroyed by a bombing attack, on Thursday

Should Trump forge a lasting, sustainable peace in Ukraine, he will deliver a great achievement that might be worth the Nobel Peace Prize that he reportedly craves. More importantly, thousands of lives — Ukrainians and Russians — will be saved. There may also be some truth to the frequent claim of administration officials that only this president has a chance to end the war. While President Joe Biden rallied the Western alliance effectively to provide Ukraine with arms, ammunition and financial aid that saved its independence, there was never a track for peace talks with Putin, who was ostracized after his invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

Trump may also be tapping into fatigue among many Americans at the cost of that support, although his claim that the US has spent $350 billion is a wild exaggeration. And some analysts believe that the new administration is only stating the obvious — that Ukraine will be unable to liberate eastern regions captured by Russia and Crimea, annexed by Putin in 2014. Furthermore, there’s agreement, even among European governments that have sided with Zelensky after Trump’s bullying, that some kind of partition will be needed to end the war.

But Trump’s excessive deference to Putin in his first term and his early praise for the invasion of Ukraine, along with his longtime fascination with the Russian leader, raise doubt about his motives in his push to quickly end the war. Since taking office for a second time, the president has strong-armed Zelensky in a notorious Oval Office photo op and switched official American government sympathies from the victim of a vicious onslaught to its perpetrator, Putin. The president cut off vital US intelligence-sharing that helps Ukraine on the battlefield and to protect its civilians from waves of drone attacks. He also halted US military assistance to force Zelensky to accept his demand for an immediate ceasefire. US supplies and intelligence are flowing again, but the interruption sent a clear message to Zelensky that Trump could end the war on his terms if he wanted.

But will any such pressure be brought to bear on Putin, now that he, unlike the Ukrainian leader, has spurned Trump’s terms? After all, the US president has said for weeks that he was convinced that Putin wanted to stop the fighting. Thursday’s response shows that, at least for now, the Kremlin wants to keep the war going.

Russian President Vladimir Putin during a joint news conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow, Russia, on Thursday.

The president has this week threatened tariffs on Russian imports and banking sanctions that he said would devastate Moscow’s finances — but after three years of efforts to cut Russia out of the global economy, business interactions between it and the United States are minimal. And Moscow has established channels, including through China, to support its wartime economy.

Trump refused to say on Thursday what leverage he could bring to bear on Putin that might work. But it’s been clear ever since the president took back the White House that he sees Ukraine as a stepping stone on the way to a restored superpower relationship with Russia. The president has, for example, called for Moscow’s return to the Group of Seven. The rich-nations club was known as the G8 until Russia was kicked out after it snatched Crimea. He appears barely able to wait for the opportunity to hold a summit with Putin in person that would restore the Russian leader’s place on the world stage. And Trump’s expansionist rhetoric about folding Canada and Greenland into the US recall Putin’s justifications for the invasion of Ukraine. So there could come a time when the incentives for a broader relationship with Washington convince Putin that it’s time to shelve, probably temporarily, his obsession with Ukraine.

In Trump’s first term, there was rampant speculation about whether he was compromised by Russia; why Moscow intervened in the 2016 election to help him, as US intelligence agencies assessed; and why he admired Putin so much.

The roots of Trump’s obsessions remain unclear, though the allegations he’s an asset of Moscow were never proven and still seem far-fetched.

But in his second term, Trump has attacked longtime US allies and blamed Zelensky for the war instead of the Russian leader who started it.

That’s why traditional US foreign policy experts and governments worry about what the answer would be if Putin asked Trump to help oust Zelensky as a condition for a peace deal — especially since the US president has already suggested, falsely, that the Ukrainian leader who got caught up in his first impeachment was a dictator. And how would the president respond if the Russians called for him to withdraw NATO troops in Eastern Europe to address what Putin falsely calls “the root causes” of the Ukrainian conflict?

The question is whether Trump is negotiating with Putin or whether the Russian leader is manipulating him.



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Europe

The weather phenomenon behind the European heat wave

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A marine heat wave in the Mediterranean Sea is combining with a powerful heat dome to cause Europe to swelter under a brutal early summer heat wave.

It’s a pattern that’s popping up frequently as the planet warms: The influence of Mediterranean marine heat waves has been more pronounced in recent summers, with the ocean heat playing a role in spiking temperatures on land, contributing to deadly floods and stoking devastating fires.

Water temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea are up to 9 degrees above average for this time of year amid a significant marine heat wave. The most intense warming is present in the western Mediterranean, including just south of France.

This is helping to cause high humidity to surge north and to keep temperatures elevated at night across the heat wave-affected regions.

The heat wave, which also involves hot air flowing north from Africa, is also reinforcing the marine heat wave in a feedback cycle.

People take advantage of water mist fountains in Valencia, Spain on June 21, 2025, as parts of the country experience a heatwave.
Pedestrians walk past a pharmacy sign showing 39 degrees celsius (86 Fahreneheit) as high temperatures hit Lisbon, Portugal on June 28, 2025.

Temperatures have broken records in Spain and Portugal as swaths of Europe brace for more records to fall through Wednesday as the heat wave intensifies.

The town of El Granado in Spain saw temperatures spike to 46 degrees Celsius (114.8 Fahrenheit) on Sunday, a new national record for June, according to Spain’s national meteorological service AEMET. Last month was Spain’s hottest June in recorded history, as temperatures “pulverized records,” Aemet said Tuesday.

In Portugal, a provisional temperature of 46.6 degrees Celsius (115.9 Fahrenheit) was recorded in the city of Mora, about 80 miles east of Lisbon, according to the country’s weather service IPMA, which would be a new national record for June.

Scorching heat is sweeping almost the entirety of France. Multiple towns and cities endured temperatures above 100 degrees on Monday, according to provisional recordings from Météo France.

A red heat wave warning, the highest designation, is in place for 16 French départements Tuesday, including Île-de-France, where Paris is located. The Eiffel Tower summit is closed to tourists Tuesday and Wednesday due to the heat.

The United Kingdom is also baking, currently enduring its second heat wave of the summer. Temperatures pushed above 90 degrees on Monday, making for very uncomfortable conditions in a country where fewer than 5% of homes have air conditioning.

Wimbledon tennis spectators use handheld fans to cool themselves down during the first round match between Russia's Daniil Medvedev and France's Benjamin Bonzi in London, on 30 June 2025.
Smoke and flames from wildfires in Seferihisar district of Izmir, Turkiye on June 30, 2025.

“The current June-July heatwave is exposing millions of Europeans to high heat stress,” Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, said in a statement.

“The temperatures observed recently are more typical of the months of July and August and tend to only happen a few times each summer.”

Wildfires are sweeping several countries as the temperatures spike. Fires broke out Sunday in Aude, in the southwest of the country, burning nearly 400 acres. In Turkey, 50,000 people have been evacuated as firefighters tackle fierce blazes mostly in the western Izmir and Manisa provinces.

Temperature records are also poised to fall Tuesday and Wednesday in Germany as the heat dome expands east, and before a series of relief-providing cold fronts begin to swing into northwestern Europe from the west.

Human-caused climate change is causing heat waves to be more frequent, intense and long-lasting. Europe is the fastest-warming continent, and is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world. Climate change is also leading to more frequent and intense marine heat waves.



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3 times Trump’s tariffs worked

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CNN
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President Donald Trump’s tariffs are designed to boost US manufacturing, restore the balance of trade and fill America’s coffers with tax dollars. The White House’s record on those three goals has been a decidedly mixed bag.

But Trump has a fourth way that he likes to use tariffs. Trump has repeatedly threatened tariffs as a kind of anvil dangling over the heads of countries, companies or industries.

The subjects of Trump’s tariff threats have, at times, immediately come to the negotiating table. Sometimes, threats just work.

The most recent example was over the weekend, when Canada backed off its digital services tax that was set to go into effect Monday. Trump had railed against the tax on online companies, including US corporations that do business in Canada. On Friday, he threatened to end trade talks with America’s northern neighbor. Trump also said he would set a new tariff for Canada by the end of this week.

On Sunday, Canada backed down, saying it would drop the tax to help bring the countries back to the table.

“To support those negotiations, the Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States,” the Canadian government said in a statement.

On Monday, United States and Canada restarted trade discussions.

“It’s part of a bigger negotiation,” said Prime Minister Mark Carney in a press conference Monday. “It’s something that we expected, in the broader sense, that would be part of a final deal. We’re making progress toward a final deal.”

Trump’s first tariff action of his second term came against Colombia after President Gustavo Petro in late January blocked US military flights carrying undocumented migrants from landing as part of Trump’s mass deportation effort.

In turn, Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Colombian exports that would grow to 50% if the country didn’t accept deportees from the United States.

Colombia quickly walked back its refusal and reached an agreement to accept deported migrants.

“You can’t go out there and publicly defy us in that way,” a Trump administration official told CNN in January. “We’re going to make sure the world knows they can’t get away with being nonserious and deceptive.”

Trump ultimately dropped the tariff threat.

Citing a lack of progress in trade negotiations, Trump in late May said he was calling off talks with the European Union and would instead just impose a 50% tariff on all goods from there.

“Our discussions with them are going nowhere!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on May 23. Later that day in the Oval Office, Trump said he was no longer looking for a deal with the EU.

But three days later, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke with Trump and said the EU would fast-track a deal with the United States. Trump then delayed the 50% tariff deadline until July 9.

Although a deal hasn’t yet come through, Trump’s threat got Europe to get serious, in the White House’s view, on trade, when it had been slow-walking negotiations, trying to get a consensus from its dozens of members.

The Trump administration attributes a large number of corporate investments in the United State to its tariffs and tariff threats, although it’s often hard to draw a clear line from Trump’s trade policy to a particular company announcing it will build an American factory. Those decisions often take years of planning and are costly processes.

For example, shortly after Trump doubled down on steel and aluminum tariffs and included finished products like dishwashers and washing machines in the 50% tariff, GE Appliances said it would move production from China to Kentucky. The company said it had planned the move before Trump announced the derivative product tariffs – but Trump’s trade war accelerated its plans.

In some other cases, Trump’s threats have largely gone nowhere.

Furious with Apple CEO Tim Cook for announcing the company would export iPhones to the United States from India – rather than building an iPhone factory in the United States – Trump announced a 25% tariff on all Apple products imported to the United States. He threatened the same against Samsung.

But Trump never followed through with his threat, and Apple and Samsung haven’t budged on their insistence that complex smartphone manufacturing just isn’t practical or possible in the United States. Skilled manufacturing labor for that kind of complex work isn’t readily available in the United States – and those who do have those capabilities charge much more to work here than their peers charge in other countries. Complying with Trump’s demands could add thousands of dollars to the cost of a single smartphone – more than Trump’s threatened tariff.

Trump similarly threatened Hollywood in May with a 100% tariff on movies made outside the United States. That left many media executives scratching their heads, trying to figure out what the threat entailed – a threat that ultimately never materialized. The administration later acknowledged Trump’s statement about the tariff was merely a proposal, and it was eager to hear from the industry about how to bring lost production back to Hollywood.

Nevertheless, Trump’s threats against the movie industry raised awareness about the bipartisan issue, and California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom subsequently posted support for a partnership with the Trump administration to incentivize movie and television makers to film in the state again.

Trump’s threats don’t always work, and sometimes his tariffs have kicked off a trade war, raising prices in a tit-for-tat tariff escalation. But a handful of times, including this weekend, his tariff threats have gotten America’s trading partners to agree to major concessions.

CNN’s Luciana Lopez and Michael Rios contributed to this report.



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France leads Europe in banning beach and park smoking

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Paris
CNN
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This summer in Paris, a sunset cigarette under the Eiffel Tower could come with an unexpected price tag.

Starting July 1, France has banned smoking in all outdoor areas frequented by children — including parks, beaches, public gardens, bus stops, school entrances, and sports venues. The sweeping measure is part of President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to create “the first tobacco-free generation” by 2032.

Lighting up in these zones could cost smokers more than a dirty look from a passerby. Those who break the rules — including unsuspecting tourists — face a fine of 90 euros if they pay within 15 days, going up to 135 euros (around $150) after that.

“France is positioning itself as one of Europe’s most proactive countries in terms of tobacco control,” Raquel Venâncio, senior policy officer at Smoke Free Partnership, a coalition of European tobacco control advocacy groups, told CNN.

While countries like Spain and Italy have introduced restrictions on smoking in certain areas at local or regional levels, France stands out as the only European country to enforce a nationwide ban against beach smoking.

But not all citizens support the new measure.

“The more time goes by, the more the government wants to take away our basic freedoms,” Elise Levaux, a 25-year-old student in Paris, told CNN. “If you’re being respectful — not throwing away cigarette butts in a park or beach, not disturbing others — I don’t see the problem. Why should smoking suddenly be treated like a crime?”

Elise Levaux, 25, thinks that introducing fines for smoking in parks

The restrictions are undoubtedly a major shift in a country long synonymous with cigarette culture. From Brigitte Bardot to Charles de Gaulle, French icons were rarely seen without a Gauloises — the archetypal French brand — in hand. “France’s intellectual circles and cinematic culture have normalized cigarettes for generations,” Venâncio observed. “For decades, there was no political will to ban smoking.”

But the national relationship with tobacco is changing.

Smoking in France is at its lowest level since the 1990s, the National Committee against Tobacco (CNCT) reports. Today, around a third of adults in France smoke, with 23% of the adult population saying they smoke daily, according to a 2024 report from the French national public health agency. Tobacco use is declining among young people, with only 16% of 17-year-olds reporting they smoke daily in 2022, the most recent data available — down from 25% six years prior.

Still, France remains one of Europe’s most tobacco-dependent countries, fueled in part by what officials have called an “explosion” in cigarette smuggling, largely from Bulgaria, Turkey, and Algeria. In 2024 alone, France consumed an estimated 18.7 billion illicit cigarettes, according to a KPMG study carried out for tobacco giant Philip Morris — accounting for a staggering 38% of tobacco use and making it the largest illicit tobacco market in Europe.

Most regular smokers begin in their teenage years, with nearly 90% of them picking up the habit before turning 18, according to the Ministry of Health.

“I’ve been smoking since I was 14,” said Jane, 25, who declined to give her last name. “Most of my friends started just as young. Fine or no fine, we’re going to continue smoking. It’s part of the French identity — we fight for what we want. We’re not robots.”

In a statement shared with CNN, Minister of Health Catherine Vautrin said that “protecting youth and denormalizing smoking” is an “absolute priority” for the government. “At 17, you should be building your future, not your addiction,” she said. “Where there are children, tobacco must disappear.”

Jane, 25, says she started smoking at the age of 14. She says France's new ban

Unlike Belgium and the United Kingdom, which recently prohibited the sale of disposable vapes, France’s new rules do not ban e-cigarettes — at least for now. The new regulations do, however, include a reduction in authorized nicotine levels in vaping products, as well as strict limits on flavors like cotton candy, which critics say are designed to appeal to young people.

“These products serve as gateways to addiction and will be regulated, starting in 2026,” Vautrin said.

Tobacco use remains the leading preventable health risk in the European Union, causing nearly 700,000 premature deaths each year, according to EU figures. In France alone, it accounts for 75,000 deaths each year — equivalent to 200 deaths per day, according to the country’s health ministry.

Beyond the direct toll on smokers and those around them, tobacco products also pose an environmental hazard. An estimated 20,000 to 25,000 tons of cigarette butts are discarded across France each year, according to the Ministry of Health.

France banned the sale of cigarettes to minors under 18 in 2009. But enforcement has been lax: a study by the National Committee against Tobacco (CNCT) found that nearly two-thirds of tobacco shops continue to sell cigarettes to underage customers. And while minors are prohibited from buying tobacco, no law prevents them from smoking — a legal loophole that the government has promised to address in future legislation.

In contrast to Sweden — the only European country to have fully banned smoking on restaurant and bar terraces — France continues to permit smoking in these spaces. Even the UK, which has some of Europe’s strictest anti-smoking policies, allows smoking in pub gardens.

“We’ve been trying to push for a ban on terrace smoking for almost a decade, but it’s very challenging,” Amélie Eschenbrenner, spokeswoman for the French National Committee for Tobacco Control (CNCT), told CNN. “Having a cigarette with a glass of wine — it’s an integral part of French culture.”

But tradition isn’t the only barrier. According to Eschenbrenner, the main obstacle to banning terrace smoking is lobbying by the tobacco industry.

Facade of a tabac, or tobacconist's store, in the 4th arrondissement of Paris, France.

France has almost 23,000 licensed tabacs — tobacco shops that occupy the corners of many urban streets. A CNCT study found that tobacconists enjoy a level of popular support comparable to that of public health agencies. “They use their popularity to sway decision-makers, especially parliamentarians,” Eschenbrenner explained. “That’s why enforcing a widespread ban is so difficult.”

CNN approached a dozen tobacconists in Paris seeking their view on the new law, but none wanted to speak.

Still, change may be on the horizon. “In 2007, when France enforced a ban on smoking inside restaurants, bars and nightclubs, there was a lot of push-back,” Eschenbrenner recalled. “But over time, people got used to it and accepted it. The same is likely to happen with these new regulations — and, hopefully, with a future ban on terrace smoking.”

As part of its strategy to reduce cancer rates, the European Commission aims to reduce tobacco use to less than 5% of the EU population by 2040. In the same vein, France’s government has indicated that the latest restrictions may be the first step in a wider crackdown on tobacco.

“Tobacco is poison,” said Vautrin. “It kills, it costs, it pollutes. I refuse to give up the fight. Every day without tobacco is a life gained. Our goal is clear: a tobacco-free generation — and we have the means to achieve it.”



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