CNN
 — 

The United States is stepping up pressure on India and Pakistan to avoid conflict in Kashmir after a tourist massacre in an Indian-administered area of the divided territory last week.

US Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that Washington hopes Pakistan will help hunt down the militants behind the attack, who are based in Pakistan-controlled territory.

And Vance urged India, which has accused Pakistan of being involved in the attack, to act with restraint so tensions do not explode into a war between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

“Our hope here is that India responds to this terrorist attack in a way that doesn’t lead to a broader regional conflict,” Vance said in an interview on Fox News’ “Special Report with Bret Baier.”

“And we hope, frankly, that Pakistan, to the extent that they’re responsible, cooperates with India to make sure that the terrorists sometimes operating in their territory are hunted down and dealt with.”

Vance’s comments echoed those of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who on Wednesday spoke with top Pakistani and Indian officials and called on the two rivals to work with each other to “de-escalate tensions,” according to State Department readouts of the two calls.

Rubio “expressed his sorrow for the lives lost in the horrific terrorist attack in Pahalgam, and reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to cooperation with India against terrorism,” in his call with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

In his call with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Rubio “spoke of the need to condemn the terror attack on April 22,” and urged Pakistani officials’ cooperation in the investigation.

“Both leaders reaffirmed their continued commitment to holding terrorists accountable for their heinous acts of violence,” the readout said.

Fears of a broader conflict increased earlier this week when Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said his country had “credible intelligence that India intends carrying out military action against Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours.”

That timeframe has now passed.

Militants on April 22 massacred 26 civilians, the vast majority tourists, in the mountainous town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, a rampage that has sparked widespread outrage.

India and Pakistan have since engaged in tit-for-tat hostilities.

India closed its airspace to commercial flights from Pakistan on Tuesday, matching Islamabad’s ban on flights from India, which was imposed last week in response to New Delhi’s cancelation of visas for Pakistani nationals and suspension of a key water sharing treaty.

This week, New Delhi and Islamabad have both been flexing their military might.

Pakistan shot down an Indian drone that was used for “espionage” in the disputed Kashmir region on Tuesday, Pakistani security sources told CNN.

Two days earlier, India’s navy said it had carried out test missile strikes to “revalidate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems and crew for long range precision offensive strike.”

Tensions have also been simmering along the de facto border, the Line of Control, in Kashmir, and gunfire was exchanged along the disputed border for seven straight nights.

Kashmir, one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints, is controlled in part by India and Pakistan but both countries claim it in its entirety.

The two nuclear-armed rivals have fought three wars over the mountainous territory that has been divided since their independence from Britain nearly 80 years ago.

India conducted airstrikes inside Pakistan in 2019 following a major insurgent attack on paramilitary personnel inside Indian-administered Kashmir. It was the first such incursion into Pakistan’s territory since a 1971 war between the two neighbors.

The latest attack on tourists in Kashmir has sparked fears that India might respond in a similar way.

Conditions may be ripe for greater conflict now than was seen in 2019, according to Steven Honig and Natalie Caloca, researchers at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Writing on the CFR website, the two said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has “made the transformation and stabilization of Kashmir a central pillar of his legacy”

They said Modi was hurt politically by the 2019 attacks inside Indian-administer Kashmir and will likely feel pressure to be more assertive with New Delhi’s response this time.

Both countries are heavily armed, though in any conventional conflict, India holds a large advantage.

The Indian defense budget is more than nine times Pakistan’s, according to the “Military Balance 2025” from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

That budget supports an active-duty Indian force of almost 1.5 million personnel, compared to just 660,000 for Pakistan.

On the ground, India’s 1.2 million force army has 3,750 main battle tanks and more than 10,000 artillery pieces, while Pakistan’s tank force is only two-thirds of India’s and Islamabad has fewer than half of the artillery pieces in New Delhi’s arsenal.

At sea, the Indian navy’s advantage is overwhelming. It has two aircraft carriers, 12 guided-missile destroyers, 11 guided-missile frigates and 16 attack submarines.

Pakistan has no carriers and no guided-missile destroyers, with 11 smaller guided-missile frigates being the backbone of its naval fleet. It also has only half the number of subs that India fields.

Both air forces rely heavily on older Soviet-era aircraft, including MiG-21s in India and the Chinese equivalent – the J-7 – in Pakistan.

While overall numbers of air-to-air fighter jets and ground-attack aircraft sway heavily in India’s favor, both militaries have been making recent efforts to update their air forces with modern fourth-generation aircraft.

India has been investing in multirole French-made Rafale jets, with 36 now in service, according to the Military Balance.

Pakistan has been adding Chinese J-10 multirole jets, with more than 20 now in its fleet.

Though Pakistan still has dozens of US-made F-16 fighters, the backbone of its fleet has become the JF-17, a joint project with China that came online in the early 2000s. About 150 are in service.

Despite acquiring the Rafales from France, Russian-made aircraft still play a significant role in India’s air fleet. More than 100 MiG-29 fighters are in service with the air force and navy combined. And more than 260 Su-30 ground attack jets bolster India’s force.

The rivals are closer in capabilities when it comes to nuclear forces – with around five dozen surface-to-surface launchers each – though India has longer range ballistic missiles than Pakistan.

India also has two nuclear-capable submarines while Pakistan has none.

CNN’s Jennifer Hansler, Rhea Mogul and Sofia Saifi contributed to this report.

Hong Kong
CNN
 — 

The CIA has released a pair of new videos aimed at luring Chinese officials to spy for the United States, tapping into disillusion within China’s vast bureaucracy and fear of leader Xi Jinping’s relentless anti-corruption purge.

The sleekly produced clips, filmed in Mandarin with Chinese subtitles, are the latest effort by the US spy agency to ramp up intelligence gathering on China, viewed by successive administrations as the top strategic rival and military threat to America.

China’s intelligence agency has also launched a very public campaign on social media over the last two years warning its citizens against spying for foreign nations and to keep a watchful eye out for espionage attempts.

John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, has pledged to make the threat posed by China a top priority and vowed to expand the agency’s focus on Beijing.

Last October, the CIA released a text video with step-by-step instructions in Chinese on how to securely contact the agency online. It was part of a broader drive to recruit new informants in China, Iran and North Korea.

The latest videos, posted on the CIA’s social media accounts, are much sleeker than last year’s production. Each running more than 2 minutes long, they come in the style of mini-movies, complete with plot lines, narration and suspenseful background music.

One video aims to appeal to senior Communist Party officials who live in perpetual fear of being snapped up by Xi’s seemingly endless crackdown on corruption and disloyalty. The campaign has punished millions of high-flying officials and low-ranking cadres alike, shaking government agencies, the military and state-owned companies.

“As I rise within the party, I watch those above me get discarded like worn-out shoes, one after another. But now, I realize that my fate is just as precarious as theirs,” the narrator says, as a Chinese official and his wife walk into a lavish dinner with Chinese government agents tailing him.

“It’s all too common for someone to suddenly vanish without a trace. What I fear most is that my family’s fate is tied to my own. I must prepare an escape route,” he says, while the camera pans to two empty seats at the dinner table.

The other video taps into a growing sense of disenchantment among young people in China. As the economy slows, some have come to realize that no matter how hard or long they work, the lives of the privileged, wealthy, and powerful remain out of reach.

It features a young government worker growing disillusioned with his career and life as he attends to a boss who lives a life of luxury fitted out in tailor-made suits and expensive watches.

He attends grueling political self-criticism sessions, eats meager takeout lunches, stays late to work on government reports and returns to a small apartment where he lives with his parents.

“From a young age, the party taught us that as long as we diligently followed the path laid out by our leaders, we would have a bright future. The sky that was meant to be shared by all is now enjoyed by only a few, leaving me no choice but to forge my own path,” he says. “I refused to lie flat!”

Both videos end with scenes of the protagonists contacting the CIA on the agency’s website: the senior party official is relieved that no matter what the future holds for him, his family can still enjoy a good life; the young government worker is excited about taking the first step toward building his own dream.

Authorities in China, which is in the middle of a five-day holiday, have not responded to the CIA videos. CNN has reached out to the Chinese Foreign Ministry for comment.

The CIA is confident that the videos are penetrating China’s “Great Firewall” of internet censorship and reaching the intended audience, Reuters reported.

“If it weren’t working, we wouldn’t be making more videos,” a CIA official told Reuters, adding that China was the agency’s foremost intelligence priority in a “truly generational competition” between the US and China.

By Friday afternoon, China’s state-controlled media had not reported on the videos, though they have caught limited attention on the country’s highly regulated social media. A few posts have mentioned the videos in writing, with one sharing screenshots. But the videos themselves have so far not been widely shared.

“The content of the videos is utterly ridiculous, and of course they can’t be posted (here),” read a Weibo post with 300 likes.

Another user wrote: “Their ulterior motives are self-evident. Since the US can’t shake us with its trade war, they’re trying to undermine us from within. The imperialists never stop scheming against China. We must stay united!”

The CIA’s publicity campaign on China comes as Beijing’s own spy agency has drastically raised its public profile in recent years. The once notoriously secretive Ministry of State Security now commands a massive following on Chinese social media, with near-daily commentaries, short videos or even comic strips sounding the alarm about supposedly ubiquitous threats to the country.

Last year, when the CIA’s former chief Bill Burns revealed in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine that the agency had allocated more funding and resources to gather intelligence on China and recruit more Chinese speakers, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry thanked him for reminding everyone that, “American spies are everywhere and infiltrating everything.”

Bangkok
CNN
 — 

State prosecutors in Thailand announced Thursday that they don’t intend to press charges against an American academic arrested for royal defamation, an offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

The arrest last month of Paul Chambers, a political science lecturer at Naresuan University in the northern province of Phitsanulok, had drawn concern from the academic community, especially from Asian studies scholars around the world, as well as the US government

The decision not to prosecute the 58-year-old Oklahoma native doesn’t immediately clear him of the charge of insulting the monarchy— also known as “lèse majesté” — or a related charge of violating the Computer Crime Act, which covers online activities.

The announcement said that the Phitsanulok provincial prosecutor will request the provincial court to drop the charges and forward the case file and nonprosecution order to the commissioner of Provincial Police Region 6, covering Phitsanulok, who may review and contest the decision.

Chambers, a 58-year-old Oklahoma native with a doctorate in political science from Northern Illinois University, was arrested in early April on a complaint made by the northern regional office of the army’s Internal Security Operations Command.

He has studied the power and influence of the Thai military, which plays a major role in politics. It has staged 13 coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, most recently 11 years ago.

The army’s Internal Security Operations Command told a parliamentary inquiry that it filed the complaint based on a Facebook post that translated words from a website operated by ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, a think tank in Singapore, about a webinar on Thai politics that included Chambers as a participant.

Chambers’ supporters said that the blurb for the webinar, which was cited in his charge sheet as evidence, wasn’t written by him.

He had been jailed in April for two nights after reporting himself to the Phitsanulok police, and then granted release on bail, with several conditions, including wearing an ankle monitor. A court on Tuesday allowed him to take off the device.

Chambers’ visa was revoked at the time of his arrest on the basis of an immigration law barring entry to foreigners who are deemed likely to engage in activities contrary to public order or good morals, prostitution, people smuggling and drug trafficking. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the revocation will stand.

“This case reinforces our longstanding concerns about the use of lèse majesté laws in Thailand,” a US State Department statement said after Chambers’ arrest. ”We continue to urge Thai authorities to respect freedom of expression and to ensure that laws are not used to stifle permitted expression.”

Thailand’s lèse majesté law calls for three to 15 years imprisonment for anyone who defames, insults or threatens the king, the queen, the heir apparent or the regent. Critics say it’s among the harshest such laws anywhere and also has been used to punish critics of the government and the military.

The monarchy has long been considered a pillar of Thai society and criticizing it used to be strictly taboo. Conservative Thais, especially in the military and courts, still consider it untouchable.

However, public debate on the topic has grown louder in the past decade, particularly among young people, and student-led pro-democracy protests starting in 2020 began openly criticizing the institution.

That led to vigorous prosecutions under the previously little-used law. The legal aid group Thai Lawyers for Human Rights has said that since early 2020, more than 270 people — many of them student activists — have been charged with violating the law.