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India and Pakistan are both claiming victory after Wednesday’s clash. Will cooler heads prevail?

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CNN
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A tense silence settled over India and Pakistan as millions woke Thursday: no more missiles had been fired, schools in most areas had reopened and both sides appeared to be claiming victory.

It was a stark difference to the day prior, when palpable panic rocked both nations after New Delhi launched targeted military strikes on its neighbor, while Islamabad claimed it had shot down its rival’s fighter jets.

“Strokes of justice,” ran an editorial from one of India’s leading English newspapers commending the country’s “sharp” and “resolute” response to the massacre of 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir, at the hands of militants. A headline from The Indian Express echoed a similar tune: “Justice Served” it said across the front page.

In Pakistan, the response from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was more bellicose.

He has vowed to “avenge” the deaths of 31 people Pakistan says were killed in India’s strikes but still appeared to declare triumph for its apparent shooting of India’s airplanes.

“It only took a few hours for the enemy to fall on its knees,” he said in a late-night address to the nation.

India says it struck “terrorist infrastructure” belonging to two Islamist groups – Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed – who have been accused of being behind some the deadliest militant attacks on the country. Wednesday’s strikes did not target military infrastructure and didn’t kill civilians, New Delhi said, potentially giving India and Pakistan an opportunity to find a way to avoid an all-out war.

One location India struck was deep in Pakistan’s Punjab province, the deepest attack in Pakistan’s undisputed territory since both countries fought a major war in 1971. It also targeted multiple other locations in Punjab – the heartland of the powerful military and home of the Sharif government – and hit a mosque, according to Pakistani officials, angering millions in the Muslim-majority nation.

What happens now, analysts say, mostly depends on Islamabad’s next move.

“All eyes are on Pakistan,” said Washington-based South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman. “If it decides to save face and claim victory — perhaps by pointing to the downing of Indian jets (which New Delhi has not confirmed) — and call it a day, an off ramp could be in sight.”

But he warned “all bets would be off” should Pakistan decide to strike back.

Smoke billows after an artillery shell landed in Poonch district in India's Jammu and Kashmir region on May 7, 2025.

Most analysts agree the nuclear-armed neighbors cannot afford another battle.

India and Pakistan have already fought three wars over Kashmir, a contested region they both claim in its entirety and each control a part of. Another conflict could have catastrophic consequences.

Since its birth seven decades ago in the partition of what was British India, Pakistan – now home to 230 million people – has faced mounting challenges, from political instability to an alarming militant insurgency, climate catastrophes and economic disarray.

National Disaster Response Force personnel take part in the nationwide civil defense mock drill in Varanasi on May 7, 2025.

India is seemingly in a stronger position; its military is seen as superior in any conventional conflict based on number alone and it boasts an economy more than 10 times the size of Pakistan’s. But it too would have something to lose should the conflict escalate, according to Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution.

“Largely on the basis of what we’ve seen in previous times, these are two rational actors who don’t want a broader war,” Madan said.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to elevate India’s status on the global stage, bidding to host the Olympics and seeking to overtake China as the world’s manufacturing hub.

Not to mention, India already faces security threats on multiple fronts — particularly along contested borders with China.

Analysts say there are signs both countries are serious about de-escalation. But any further retaliation from either side could quickly spiral into an all-out conflict. Both sides, for example, have continued to exchange fire across the de factor border in Kashmir.

India was quick to project that its response to the April 22 massacre was “focused, measured and non-escalatory” and make clear that they were in response to the tourist’s massacre.

Top officials in New Delhi reached out to key counterparts in the United States, Middle East and Russia, among others, “presumably to encourage international pressure for Pakistan to avoid escalation,” said Nisha Biswal, Senior Advisor at The Asia Group.

In a sign of a return to normalcy after the strikes, Pakistan said it reopened its airspace and schools across the country, and it appeared to be business as usual on the streets in the capital Islamabad on Thursday morning.

Pakistan’s leaders touted a victory by the country’s air force, saying five Indian fighter jets were shot down during an hour-long battle fought at ranges over 160 kilometers (100 miles).

Passengers wait at Jinnah International Airport after all domestic and international flights were cancelled in Karachi on May 7, 2025.

India’s leaders have said little in response to those claims and have not acknowledged any aircraft losses. The Pakistanis have yet to show any evidence proving they downed fighter jets, but a French Defense Ministry source said at least one of India’s newest and most-advanced warplanes – a French-made Rafale fighter jet – was lost in the battle.

If there have indeed been losses for India, Pakistan could claim victory “even if the circumstances are murky,” said Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This would allow Pakistan to claim it has imposed costs on Indian military targets.”

Yet, amid the fog of war, Pakistan’s powerful army general Asim Munir had already vowed to match any aggression from India.

And Munir, who is known for his hardline stance on Hindu-nationalist Modi, has a reputation of being more assertive than his predecessor Qamar Javed Bajwa.

Meanwhile there have been many voices within Modi’s Hindu nationalist party pushing for a decisive blow against Pakistan for years.

Kugelman, the South Asia analyst, said the US, which has historically interceded in these crises, could try to defuse the tension, but it’s unclear how much bandwidth the Trump administration is willing to allocate.

“China has called for de-escalation, but its fraught ties with India rule it out as a viable intermediary. The top mediator candidates are the Arab Gulf states, especially Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates,” he said, given their strong ties with both nations.

Qatar was quick to urge diplomacy in the hours after Wednesday’s strikes.

While most analysts think there is an off-ramp for both nations, they all agree the situation remains fluid and tense.

“This crisis is as unpredictable as it is dangerous—an unsettling combination,” Kugelman added.



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Asia

China’s Xi hails ‘stable and resilient’ Russia ties as he shows solidarity with Putin in Moscow

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Hong Kong
CNN
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping hailed Russia and China’s “stable and resilient” ties as he began talks with counterpart Vladimir Putin on Thursday in Moscow, a show of solidarity in the face of global uncertainties unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s “America First” diplomacy.

Sitting across a table from Putin, Xi said the countries’ “political mutual trust has grown deeper” and “practical cooperation has strengthened.”

“In this new era, China-Russia relations are more composed and confident, stable and resilient,” he added.

Xi arrived Wednesday for a four-day state visit to Russia, where he’ll top a list of foreign leaders attending Putin’s heavily choreographed Victory Day military parade, which is taking place in the shadow of Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine. This year’s events mark 80 years since the Allied victory over Nazi Germany, which ended World War II.

Putin welcomed his Chinese counterpart to the Kremlin, where they shook hands in a cavernous hall before posing for photos flanked by oversized Chinese and Russian flags. During opening remarks, each referred to the other as a “friend.”

Talks held over breakfast, as well as an informal, one-on-one tea on Thursday morning, are expected to cover their strategic partnership, the war in Ukraine and Russia’s relations with the United States, according to the Kremlin.

The two leaders have met more than 40 times over the past decade and steadily strengthened their partnership in recent years in the face of shared tensions with the West. Their diplomacy this week comes at a pivotal moment in each country’s relations with the United States.

China is now locked in an escalated trade war with Washington, sparked by Trump’s heavy tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy. Moscow, meanwhile, has found a more sympathetic America under Trump than it did during Joe Biden’s presidency, but is now warily eying recently warming ties between Washington and Kyiv.

Both Beijing and Moscow have appeared keen to use the gathering to showcase themselves as stable partners and reliable powers, part of a broader bid to reshape an international order they see unfairly dominated by the West.

“Currently, in the face of an international countercurrent of unilateralism and the hegemonic practices of the powerful, China together with Russia will take on our special responsibilities as major world powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council,” Xi said during his opening remarks, using language Beijing typically employs in veiled references to the US.

Putin noted that the two countries were developing their “ties for the benefit of the peoples of both countries and not against anyone” and said the two governments were working to implement “an entire array of practical agreements, including a detailed plan for economic cooperation until 2030.”

Members of the Chinese and Russian delegations watch Russian President Vladimir Putin welcome Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the Kremlin on May 8.

The meeting takes place hours after a three-day ceasefire in Ukraine — unilaterally declared by Putin last month — came into effect, coinciding with the parade. Russian state news agency Tass said the ceasefire began at midnight local time on Wednesday (5 p.m. ET Wednesday).

However, Ukraine’s air force claimed that, overnight, Russia launched guided bombs over the city of Sumy in northeastern Ukraine. CNN could not independently verify the claim.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned dignitaries traveling to the event that Kyiv “cannot be responsible for what happens on the territory of the Russian Federation,” amid the ongoing conflict, a statement the Kremlin said amounted to a threat.

Ukraine has launched multiple drone attacks on Moscow over the course of the war, including in recent days, prompting temporary closures of airports in the capital for several hours. Ukraine says its attacks are in response to Russia’s continued assault on Ukrainian territory, including residential areas and energy infrastructure.

More than two dozen leaders are expected to gather in the Russian capital for the Victory Day celebrations, while troops from 13 countries will march in the parade, according to the Kremlin. Leaders expected to attend include Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Belarussian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko.

The gathering, a key chance for Putin to project himself as a global power player, takes place amid an increasingly contentious global backdrop, including tensions between India and Pakistan which threaten to spiral into a full-blown conflict.

Russia’s May 9 Victory Day is one of the country’s largest celebrations. It marks Nazi Germany’s 1945 surrender to the Soviet Union, a day which has become increasingly important under Putin, who has falsely claimed his war in Ukraine is a “denazification.” In recent years the parade has seen a diminished supply of military hardware, as Russian tanks are instead mobilized on that war’s front lines.

Europe celebrates its VE Day, marking Germany’s surrender on all fronts, on Thursday.



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Live updates: Pakistan vows retaliation after India launches Operation Sindoor

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People watch as Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif addresses the nation, in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Wednesday.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has vowed to respond to India’s strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir that were carried out in the early hours of Wednesday local time.

What that response entails may well decide whether the two countries are able to find an off-ramp or become locked into an escalating confrontation.

One option for Pakistan is to claim victory, pointing to the jets it claims to have downed. This option depends on the truth of Pakistan’s claims that it has downed five Indian Air Force planes, including three French-made Rafale fighter jets.

If there have indeed been losses for India, “Pakistan could claim victory by pointing to the downed assets, even if the circumstances are murky. This would allow Pakistan to claim it has imposed costs on Indian military targets,” said Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

A second option is to carry out strikes of its own. Pakistan might decide it wants to “respond in kind” because some of India’s strikes hit the densely populated province of Punjab in Pakistan, said Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution.

Or Pakistani Army Chief Syed Asim Munir, who is reputed to be “more assertive” than his predecessor Qamar Javed Bajwa was in 2019 when India and Pakistan last clashed, may decide he wants to “up the ante,” said Madan.

However, given India’s messaging has been that it will retaliate if Pakistan’s next move goes too far, Islamabad could decide to keep any response “below a certain threshold,” Madan said.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has said Islamabad will only hit military targets in India, not civilian.

The latest statements from Pakistan suggested it is thinking of a measured response, Madan said, adding however, that no possibilities can be ruled out.

“Largely on the basis of what we’ve seen in previous times, these are two rational actors who don’t want a broader war. Both have something to lose if there is a broader conflict,” she said.



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‘Operation Sindoor:’ Why India attacked Pakistan and conflict has escalated dramatically

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Islamabad, Pakistan / New Delhi, India
CNN
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India launched military strikes on Pakistan on Wednesday and Pakistan claimed it shot down five Indian Air Force jets, in an escalation that has pushed the two nations to the brink of war.

The escalation puts India and Pakistan, two neighbors with a long history of conflict, in dangerous territory, with Islamabad vowing to retaliate against India’s strikes and the international community calling for restraint.

New Delhi said the strikes are in response to the massacre of 26 people – mostly Indian tourists – who died in April when gunmen stormed a scenic mountain spot in the India-administered part of Kashmir, a disputed border region. India has blamed Pakistan for the attack, which Islamabad denies.

Here’s what we know so far.

India launched “Operation Sindoor” in the early hours of Wednesday morning local time (Tuesday night ET), saying it was targeting “terrorist infrastructure” in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Indian officials said nine sites were targeted, but claimed no Pakistani civilian, economic or military sites were struck.

The name ‘Sindoor’ appears to be a reference to the red vermilion, or powder, many Hindu women wear on their foreheads after marriage. The April tourist massacre left several Indian women widowed.

But Pakistan is painting a different picture of the strikes – saying civilians were killed and that mosques were hit. CNN has yet to verify those claims.

A Pakistani military spokesperson said six locations were hit with 24 strikes. Some of those strikes hit the densely populated province of Punjab, Pakistan’s military said, and were the deepest India has struck inside Pakistan since 1971, when the two countries fought one of their four wars.

Pakistani security sources claimed they had shot down five Indian Air Force jets and one drone during India’s attack.

They did not say exactly where, or how, the jets were downed – but said three Rafale jets were among those planes. India’s Rafale fighters jets are prized military assets that it only bought from France a few years ago.

India has not confirmed any planes were lost. CNN has not been able to verify the claim and has reached out to India’s government and military for comment.

An eyewitness and local government official said an unidentified aircraft crashed in the village of Wuyan in Indian-administered Kashmir. Photos published by the AFP news agency showed aircraft wreckage lying in a field next to a red-brick building.

It was not immediately clear from the photos who the aircraft belonged to.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Wednesday the country “has every right” to respond, calling India’s actions an “act of war.”

The wreckage of an aircraft is seen in Wuyan, a village in Indian-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025.

Eight people were killed and 35 were wounded by India’s strikes, according to Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, a spokesperson for Pakistan’s military. Those killed include teenagers and children – the youngest of whom was three years old, he said.

Three civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir were also killed in shelling by Pakistani troops from across the border, according to the Indian Army.

On Wednesday, the two sides also exchanged shelling and gunfire across the Line of Control (LOC), the de facto border that divides Kashmir.

Authorities in Indian-administered Kashmir have ordered citizens to evacuate from areas deemed dangerous, saying accommodation, food and medicine will be provided.

The strikes have disrupted flights, with Pakistan closing parts of its airspace. Multiple major international airlines are avoiding flying over Pakistan, while several Indian airlines have reported disrupted flights and closed airports in the country’s north.

Some context: There have been regular exchanges of gunfire along the Line of Control in the weeks following the Pahalgam massacre.

Volunteers load a body into an ambulance after recovering it from a mosque damaged by an Indian missile strike near Muzaffarabad, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025.

Muslim-majority Kashmir has been a flashpoint in India-Pakistan relations since both countries gained their independence from Britain in 1947.

The two nations to emerge from the bloody partition of British India – Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan – both claim Kashmir in full and, months after becoming independent, fought their first of three wars over the territory.

The divided region is now one of the most militarized places in the world.

India has long accused Pakistan of harboring militant groups there that conduct attacks across the border, something Islamabad has long denied.

The massacre in the tourist hotspot of Pahalgam in April sparked widespread anger in India, putting heavy pressure on the Hindu-nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

India immediately blamed Islamabad, sparking tit-for-tat retaliatory measures in which both countries downgraded ties, canceled visas for each other’s citizens, and saw India pull out of a key water-sharing treaty.

Indian soldiers stand guard at Pampore, in Indian-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025.

The three previous wars over Kashmir have each been bloody; the last one in 1999 killed more than a thousand Pakistani troops, by the most conservative estimates.

In the decades since, militant groups have fought Indian security forces, with violence killing tens of thousands. The two countries have clashed multiple times, most recently in 2019 when India conducted airstrikes in Pakistan after it blamed Islamabad for a suicide car bomb attack in the region.

But those recent clashes did not explode into all-out war. Both sides are aware of the risks; since 1999, the two countries have worked to strengthen their militaries, including arming themselves with nuclear weapons.

The strikes have raised global alarm and pleas for the two nations to prevent further escalation.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres voiced “deep concern” over India’s strikes, warning that the world “cannot afford a military confrontation” between the two nations.

The United States – which had urged restraint from both countries last week – said it was “closely monitoring developments,” according to a State Department spokesperson.

“We are aware of the reports, however we have no assessment to offer at this time,” the spokesperson said Tuesday. “This remains an evolving situation, and we are closely monitoring developments.”

The United Arab Emirates, China and Japan have also called for both sides to de-escalate.

A senior Indian government official told CNN that New Delhi had briefed its international counterparts on the steps it had taken – including the US, UAE, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and Russia.



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