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How to decode a head-spinning few days of Ukraine war diplomacy

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CNN
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President Donald Trump’s calls with President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky this week represent the most intense diplomacy aimed at ending the war in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion three years ago.

Early signs are discouraging, since Putin refused to sign up for Trump’s proposal of a 30-day ceasefire. But Trump is framing the opening of any dialogue as a triumph. And each leader is trying to manipulate the diplomacy to their own ends and playing the public relations game – not least to escape blame if everything falls apart.

The White House is spinning a fiction of significant progress both to keep alive the chances of a peace process developing and to support the increasingly tenuous conceit that Trump is a great dealmaker, uniquely able to forge peace.

Putin flatly refused Trump’s big ask on the ceasefire. Quite simply, he’s not ready to end the war yet, as can be seen from a new set of conditions that Ukraine could never agree to if it is to survive as a sovereign state. But the Kremlin also doesn’t want to alienate Trump, and it offered him the tantalizing glimpse of a great power relationship with Putin to draw the president in.

Zelensky is a quick learner. He can’t afford a repeat of the disastrous Oval Office blowup, and now readily agrees to almost everything Trump asks. Ironically, Zelensky’s meltdown-sparking argument – that Putin cannot be trusted to make or keep ceasefire agreements – has now been proven true.

Ukraine and Russia are each vying for the president’s attention and seeking to blame the other for impeding peace. After a violent night, each side accused the other of breaking the partial agreement brokered by the US president to avoid hitting energy infrastructure. Their estrangement over even this minor detail undermines Trump’s bullish statements that a peace deal is within reach.

The US ignores its initial failure and pushes ahead

The White House has publicly ignored Putin’s intransigence, praising the tone of his call with Trump on Tuesday and scheduling technical talks with the Russians in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

Creating an illusion of progress can be an important aspect of peace negotiations, offering an incentive for warring sides to stay at the table. But in this case, the alternate reality seems also intended to spare the blushes of a president who predicted he’d solve the war within 24 hours if voters sent him back to the White House. In their phone call on Tuesday, Putin clearly got the better of a US president who is unwilling to impose any leverage on the Kremlin strongman.

On the other hand, Trump seems to have eased up on Zelensky, perhaps because of the Ukrainian president’s more flattering tone. He agreed in their hourlong call Wednesday to help locate vitally needed air defense equipment for Ukraine in Europe. And White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the US would continue to provide military aid and intelligence to Ukraine. This is important because Trump cut off such assistance to force Kyiv to come to the table on his 30-day ceasefire plan. And it’s a rare rebuke to Putin, who made the halting of US military and intelligence resources for Ukraine a condition of joining a quest for permanent peace.

“Just completed a very good telephone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine. It lasted approximately one hour,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Much of the discussion was based on the call made yesterday with President Putin in order to align both Russia and Ukraine in terms of their requests and needs. We are very much on track.” Trump’s bullish assessment was almost absurdly upbeat. But it’s better than a few weeks ago when he was calling Zelensky a “dictator.”

After his calls with Putin and Zelensky, Trump’s dream of a peace deal seems further away than ever. Still, if all this week’s drama is somehow the start of a real push to conjure a fair and permanent settlement, Trump will prove his doubters wrong.

A serviceman of the artillery crew of the special unit National Police fires a D-30 howitzer toward Russian troops at a position in a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, on January 11, 2025.

The Trump administration is about to get a demonstration of Kremlin root-canal diplomacy. By agreeing in principle to the 30-day ceasefire but rejecting it in practice with a flurry of conditions requiring capitulation by Ukraine and the West, Putin stalled. Long negotiations on technical issues will give his forces time to exploit their current battlefield edge and eject Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region of Russia – one of Kyiv’s few territorial bargaining chips for any future peace talks.

Putin’s conditions for a peace deal – including the replacement of the current Ukrainian government, a demobilization of Kyiv’s forces and desire to see NATO retreat from Eastern Europe – haven’t changed.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi national security adviser Mosaad bin Mohammad Al-Aiban, US national security adviser Mike Waltz, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov at Diriyah Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18, 2025.

At talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia earlier this month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the coming days would test Moscow’s seriousness in the negotiations. “It’ll be up to them to say yes or no. I hope they’re going to say yes. And if they do, then I think we made great progress. If they say no, then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.” By Rubio’s own standards, Moscow has now answered in the negative. But he can’t say so for obvious political and diplomatic reasons and has no real choice but to keep pressing on.

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen best summed up the current state of the talks, in an interview with CNN’s Isa Soares on Wednesday. “Trump wants peace. Europe wants peace. Ukraine wants peace. And there is only one missing – that’s Putin.”

Russia is unlikely to disengage, however. According to the Russian readout of their call on Tuesday, Putin offered Trump the chance to create the kind of broad relationship with Russia that he craves and that seems to cause the US leader to see the war in Ukraine as a sideshow. Next, the US wants to negotiate a Black Sea maritime ceasefire – and that’s fine with Putin too, since just like the proposed halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, it could deprive Kyiv of one of its most successful arenas of combat.

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Russia’s Black Sea strategy is key to understanding the war in Ukraine. See how.

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Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz described Zelensky’s call with Trump as “fantastic.” This represents a diplomatic triumph for the Ukrainian president less than three weeks after he was kicked out of the Oval Office. Zelensky has moderated his approach, apparently reasoning that to spare his country from the worst of the US president’s pro-Putin instincts, he must be the party in the conflict most obviously working for peace, and, by extension, for the diplomatic triumph that Trump badly wants for his legacy.

The Ukrainian president laced his readout of his call with Trump with the gratitude and praise that he was accused of holding back during the Oval Office clash. He thanked Trump for a “good and productive start to the work.”

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's president, from left, US President Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Feb. 28, 2025. Zelenskiy is meeting with Trump to discuss a deal that would allow the US to share in Ukraine's natural resources, hoping to start a discussion on security guarantees. Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Hear how JD Vance described what happened during Zelensky meeting

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“We believe that together with America, with President Trump, and under American leadership, lasting peace can be achieved this year,” Zelensky said in a statement that was far more effusive about US efforts than anything the Russians have said. He did raise the key issue for Ukrainians in any peace deal: security guarantees that would be vital to preventing any new outbreaks of fighting after an agreement. And judging by the US readout of the call, he seems to have reacted favorably to a suggestion by the ever-transactional Trump that future US ownership of Ukrainian power stations could improve their security.

While humoring the White House, Ukraine is also working another track with the Europeans, who are building a “coalition of the willing” to aid Ukraine if Trump walks away. Zelensky’s top aide Andriy Yermak, for instance, pressed on Wednesday for the accelerated admission of his country to the European Union, which he said was vital to strengthening Europe’s security.



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Europe

DHL to suspend global shipments of over $800 to US consumers

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Reuters
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DHL Express, a division of Germany’s Deutsche Post, said it would suspend global business-to-consumer shipments worth over $800 to individuals in the United States from April 21, as US customs regulatory changes have lengthened clearance.

The notice on the company website was not dated, but its metadata showed it was compiled on Saturday.

DHL blamed the halt on new US customs rules which require formal entry processing on all shipments worth over $800. The minimum had been $2,500 until a change on April 5.

DHL said business-to-business shipments would not be suspended but could face delays. Shipments under $800 to either businesses or consumers were not affected by the changes.

The move is a temporary measure, the company said in its statement.

DHL said last week in response to Reuters questions that it would continue to process shipments from Hong Kong to the United States “in accordance with the applicable customs rules and regulations” and would “work with our customers to help them understand and adapt to the changes that are planned for May 2.”

That came after Hongkong Post said last week it had suspended mail services for goods sent by sea to the United States, accusing the US of “bullying” after Washington canceled tariff-free trade provisions for packages from China and Hong Kong.



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Putin declares brief ‘Easter truce’ in war, but Ukraine says it is still under attack

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CNN
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Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a brief Easter ceasefire in his war with Ukraine, a declaration met with skepticism in Kyiv as the war enters a crucial phase and US-led negotiations stall.

Putin said “all hostilities” would halt between 6 p.m. Moscow time on Saturday (11 a.m. ET) and midnight on Monday (5 p.m. Sunday ET).

“We assume that the Ukrainian side will follow our example,” he said, adding that the truce would help Russia determine how sincere Kyiv is about wanting to reach a ceasefire.

However, just hours after the announcement, Ukrainian officials accused Russian forces of continuing to fight. “According to the report of the commander-in-chief, Russian assault operations continue in some parts of the frontline and Russian artillery continues to fire,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address on Saturday night.

Kyiv has responded to the truce declaration with skepticism, with Zelensky pointing out that Putin still has not agreed to a US-led proposal for 30 days of ceasefire.

“If Russia is now suddenly ready to actually join the format of complete and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act in a mirror image, as it will on the Russian side. Silence in response to silence, strikes in defense of strikes,” Zelensky said, calling for the Easter truce to be extended to 30 days.

“This will show Russia’s true intentions, because 30 hours is enough for headlines, but not for real confidence-building measures. Thirty days can give peace a chance,” he said.

The timing of the announcement also sparked some questions – coming one day after the Trump administration indicated it was running out of patience with Russia and Ukraine, and just hours after Russia’s Defense Ministry announced its forces had pushed Ukrainian troops from one of their last remaining footholds in Russia’s Kursk region, where the Ukrainians staged a surprise incursion last year.

“Unfortunately, we have had a long history of (Putin’s) statements not matching his actions… Russia can agree at any time to the proposal for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, which has been on the table since March,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on X.

The head of Kherson’s regional military administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, said on Saturday evening local time that a high-rise building in the Dniprovskyi district of Kherson had caught fire after being struck by drones. Russian drones also attacked the villages of Urozhayne and Stanislav, he said.

“Unfortunately, we do not observe any ceasefire. The shelling continues and civilians are under attack again,” Prokudin said. “This is another confirmation that Russia has nothing sacred.”

CNN has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment.

Air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv and several other regions soon after Putin’s announcement, with the city’s military administration warning of a Russian drone attack. Officials urged people not to leave shelters until the alert was over.

Andrii Kovalenko, who heads the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, a government body, said on Telegram at 7 p.m. local time that “the Russians continue to fire in all directions.” Moscow and Kyiv are currently on the same time.

Ukrainian troops at three separate locations along the front lines told CNN that as of 8 p.m. Saturday, there was no sign of fighting easing.

There have been no pauses in the conflict since Russia’s launched its unprovoked full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The sudden nature of Putin’s announcement and the short duration of the proposed truce gave Kyiv little room to prepare or maneuver. Many Ukrainian troops participating in ongoing assaults or reconnaissance missions would have been in position already, as any moves are typically made during the night due to the threat from Russian troops.

Ukraine has previously been skeptical about such temporary pauses in conflict, having rejected a temporary ceasefire in January 2023 believing that Russia had ulterior motives in calling for a stop to the fighting, such as using the pause to bring in more troops.

The 2023 truce was similarly announced by Putin to coincide with a holiday – this time with Orthodox Easter, back then with Orthodox Christmas.

Putin’s announcement comes at a pivotal time for the war.

As well as in Kursk, fighting continues along the eastern front line, which has barely moved in the past three years as neither side has been able to make significant gains.

While Ukraine has recently managed to push Russian troops back from areas around Toretsk, Russia has been inching forward near Kupyansk, Lyman and Kurakhove, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor.

Separately, the two sides conducted one of the largest prisoner exchanges of the conflict on Saturday.

According to Zelensky, 277 captured Ukrainian soldiers were returned home. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had swapped 246 captured Ukrainian soldiers for the same number of Russian troops, and that as a “gesture of good will” Russia also exchanged 31 wounded Ukrainian troops for 15 wounded Russian servicemen.

As with previous exchanges, the swap was mediated by the United Arab Emirates.

At the same time, US-led peace efforts are stuttering as Moscow continues to stall, having previously rejected the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.

On Friday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the US was ready to “move on” within days from efforts to bring peace to Ukraine, if there were no tangible signs of progress.

This is a developing story and will be updated.



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Russia Ukraine truce: The real strategy behind Russia’s sudden truce announcement

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CNN
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The timing, the brevity, the sudden, unilateral nature of it all. If Ukraine’s allies needed proof of Moscow’s wild cynicism when it comes to peace, the announcement of an immediate truce for Easter provided just that.

It came mere hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and his boss president Donald Trump said they would need in the coming days an urgent sign that the Kremlin was serious about peace.

For Russia’s proponents, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement on Saturday looked like a nod to Trump – but the sudden declaration is so riddled with practical flaws, before it even gets out of the box, that it is likely to be simply used by Putin to support his false notion Kyiv does not want his war to stop.

It will be a logistical nightmare for Ukraine‘s forces to suddenly, immediately stop fighting at Putin’s behest. Some front line positions may be in the middle of fierce clashes when this order comes through, and a cessation of this nature likely requires days of preparation and readiness.

Misinformation is bound to confuse troops about the truce’s implementation, how to report or respond to violations, and even what to do when it comes to an end.

It is possible this moment will prove a rare sign that both sides can stop violence for short period. But it is significantly more likely they will both use violations and confusion to show their opponent cannot be trusted. As of Saturday evening local time, Ukrainian officials said Russian strikes had continued in frontline areas.

The ongoing 30-day truce limited to energy infrastructure was born in conditions of complete chaos. The White House announced that “energy and infrastructure” were covered, the Kremlin said they’d immediately stopped attacks on “energy infrastructure”, and Ukraine said the truce started a week later than the Kremlin did. Its execution has been equally mired in mistrust and accusations of breaches.

Moscow made a similar unilateral declaration in January 2023, calling for a day of peace to allow Orthodox Christians to observe Christmas – a move that Kyiv and Western leaders dismissed at the time as a strategic pause for military purposes.

A genuine truce requires negotiation with your opponent, and preparations for it to take hold. The sudden rush of this seems designed entirely to placate the White House demands for some sign that Russia is willing to stop fighting. It will likely feed Trump’s at times pro-Moscow framing of the conflict. It may also cause complexities for Ukraine when they are inevitably accused of violating what Washington may consider to be a goodwill gesture by Moscow.

Ultimately, this brief, likely theoretical, probably rhetorical and entirely unilateral stop to a three-year war, is likely to do more damage to the role of diplomacy in the coming months than it does to support it.



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