London
CNN
 — 

The Trump administration has sent an unmistakable message to Europe: You’re on your own.

In three dizzying months, the White House has reversed decades’ worth of American foreign policy, pledged to scale back its presence on the continent, and pushed to wrap up Russia’s war in Ukraine, even if that might mean handing Ukrainian land to Moscow.

The new reality is one to which Europe is still adjusting. But 80 years to the week after American and European allies forced the surrender of Nazi Germany, a future in which the continent is left alone to defend itself from the Russian menace is no longer hypothetical.

“Europe has been living for 80 years in a situation in which peace was given for granted. And apparently peace was offered for free,” Roberto Cingolani, a former Italian government minister who’s now chief executive of European defense giant Leonardo, told CNN during a recent visit to the company’s headquarters in northern Italy.

“Now, all of a sudden, after the invasion (of) Ukraine, we realize that peace must be defended.”

A breakneck race is underway in Europe’s NATO-member states to ready the continent in case of confrontation with Russia. The race is winnable: Europe boasts militaries large and expensive enough to at least partially plug the hole Washington is threatening to leave.

But armies in Western Europe need a serious influx of funds and expertise to prepare themselves for the worst-case scenario.

In recent years, Britain, France and Germany have pumped funds into their aging militaries after a plateau in spending during the middle of the 2010s.

But it could be several years until the impact of those funds are felt on the front lines. Troop numbers, weaponry and military readiness have waned in Western Europe since the end of the Cold War. “The high level of attrition in the Ukraine War has painfully highlighted European countries’ current shortcomings,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, wrote in a blunt review of Europe’s forces last year.

Nations nearer the Russian border are moving faster. The Trump administration has hailed Poland as a paragon of self-sufficiency. “We see Poland as the model ally on the continent: willing to invest not just in their defense, but in our shared defense and the defense of the continent,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in Warsaw during the first European bilateral meeting of Trump’s second term.

But Poland’s rapid escalation in defense spending has more to do with its own, generations-old tensions with Russia than with a desire to earn a place in Trump’s good graces. Warsaw and Washington are at odds on the conflict in Ukraine; Poland has for years warned Europe of the threat posed by Russia, and has steadfastly supported its neighbor as it defends territory from Putin’s advances.

The US has stationed troops in Europe since the end of the Cold War, and their numbers have grown since Russia’s full-scale invasion, with around 80,000 on the continent last year, according to a Congressional report. But the deployment is still far smaller than at the height of the Cold War, when nearly half a million American troops were stationed in Europe.

For decades, American foreign policy emphasized the importance of those deployments not just to European security, but to its own. Troops on the continent provide forward defense, help train allied forces, and manage nuclear warheads.

Now, the future of those deployments is not clear. European leaders have publicly urged Washington not to reduce numbers, but Trump, Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance have all made clear their intention to strengthen the US military posture in the South China Sea.

Today, most US land and air bases are located in Germany, Italy and Poland. US bases in central Europe provide a counterweight to the Russian threat, while naval and aerial locations in Turkey, Greece and Italy also support missions in the Middle East.

The locations serve as “a crucial foundation for NATO operations, regional deterrence, and global power projection,” according to the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis think tank.

The most important deterrent Europe holds, however, is its nuclear warheads.

During the early stages of Russia’s war, President Vladimir Putin repeatedly prompted worldwide alarm by hinting at the use of a nuclear weapon. That fear subsided after the war became bogged down in Ukraine’s east.

But nuclear deterrence is an area on which Europe is heavily reliant on the US. Britain and France – the two European countries with nuclear weapons – have only about a tenth of Russia’s arsenal between them. But the American nuclear war chest roughly matches Russia’s, and dozens of those US warheads are located in Europe.

CNN
 — 

One of them often dons a Trump-style red baseball cap and wants to make his country “great again.” The other visited the US president at the White House to drum up support. Both could soon become presidents of major allies on Ukraine’s border.

In Romania, the hard-right euroskeptic George Simion convincingly won the first round of the presidential re-run on Sunday, making him a strong favorite to win the final round on May 18.

On that same day, Poland will also hold the first round of a presidential ballot, where both the nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki and the far-right upstart Sławomir Mentzen have been making gains. If no candidate wins more than 50% of votes, a second round will be held two weeks later.

Although victory for Simion is much more likely than for Poland’s right-wing candidates, Europe is now facing the prospect that two of Ukraine’s neighbors could by next month be led by presidents who are hostile towards Brussels and aping a MAGA-style politics.

“Congratulations,” Nawrocki said to Simion on Monday in a message of support on X.

Also hailing Simion’s first-round victory, Mentzen jokingly asked if Romanian authorities “will cancel the elections again.” This was a reference to the decision last year by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first-round victory of Calin Georgescu, a Kremlin-friendly ultranationalist, after intelligence services pointed to possible Russian interference in his TikTok-fueled campaign, which he and Moscow denied. Georgescu was later banned from May’s re-run, after prosecutors charged him with establishing a fascist group and other crimes.

The court’s decision to cancel the election had little precedent, outraged many in the country and caught the attention of officials in the Trump administration. In his blistering speech in Munich in February, US Vice President JD Vance singled out Romania as the grossest case of what he called Europe’s “threat from within.”

Sunday’s first-round results showed the court’s decision did little to quell Romania’s simmering nationalist fervor and may even have inflamed it. Whereas Georgescu secured 22% of votes in November, Simion won a resounding 41% in May’s do-over, far exceeding polling expectations. His nearest contender, Nicusor Dan, the centrist mayor of the capital Bucharest, came second at around 21%.

Many in Brussels will be hoping that the pro-European Union voters will rally around Dan in the second round, shutting the far-right out of power, as happened in France in its parliamentary election last year. But analysts say divisions among the mainstream parties mean Simion is likely to win the May 18 second round.

Although Romania, like Poland, has a parliamentary system, the presidents of both countries are commanders of the armed forces and have significant sway over military spending and foreign policy.

While not as brazen as Georgescu, Simion shares many of his views and even cast his ballot alongside him on Sunday. Simion has long voiced his opposition to military aid for Ukraine, and last year was banned by Kyiv from entering the country, citing his “systematic anti-Ukrainian activities.” He is also barred from visiting neighboring Moldova. Simion has claimed he is not anti-Ukraine or pro-Russia, but simply “pro-Romanian.”

In Poland, the picture is less clear-cut. With President Andrzej Duda of the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) unable to run for a third term, Karol Nawrocki – currently head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance – is attempting to pick up his mantle. Meanwhile, Sławomir Mentzen, a leader of the far-right Confederation Liberty and Independence alliance, has climbed up the polls – but is deemed unlikely to reach the second round.

Although technically running as an independent, Nawrocki has the backing of PiS, which became increasingly authoritarian over its eight years in power, before its defeat in a 2023 parliamentary election by an alliance led by Donald Tusk’s liberal Civic Platform party.

Nawrocki met Trump at the White House last week to mark the National Day of Prayer. “President Trump said, ‘you will win,’” Nawrocki told private broadcaster TV Republika after his reception in the Oval Office.

Nawrocki has accused Volodymyr Zelensky of behaving “indecently” towards his allies, echoing criticism by Vance that the Ukrainian president is not sufficiently “grateful” for the support his country receives. In the fallout from Zelensky’s Oval Office meeting with Trump and Vance, Tusk – prime minister since 2023 – said it is “becoming clear who in Poland wants to pursue Russian interests.”

Currently polling at around 25%, Nawrocki is trailing Rafał Trzaskowski, the centrist mayor of Warsaw representing Tusk’s Civic Platform party, who is leading at around 33%.

But Simion’s overperforming polling expectations will provide encouragement to Poland’s conservative candidates.

Mentzen said Simion’s first-round victory showed that “Romanians again want to choose differently than the EU elites would like.” Further to the right than Nawrocki, Mentzen has also tacked closely to Trump, calling for a MAGA-style “revolution of common sense” in Poland.

London
CNN
 — 

Britain is marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe (VE) Day this week with four days of commemorations honoring the end of World War II on the continent, as well as those who served and perished during the conflict.

The official surrender of Nazi Germany to Allied forces took place on May 8, 1945, ending a brutal war that claimed tens of millions of lived and reshaped global history.

London’s commemorations began Monday when Big Ben, the clock and bell in Elizabeth Tower at the Houses of Parliament, struck at midday and extracts from wartime leader Winston Churchill’s VE Day speech echoed across the capital.

A military parade, featuring members of the United Kingdom’s armed forces, marched from parliament to Buckingham Palace. It was watched by King Charles, Queen Camilla, the Prince and Princess of Wales, and their three children, Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis. More events, including a flypast of historic aircraft, are planned for Monday afternoon, a public holiday in the United Kingdom.

Members of the British royal family attending Monday’s procession wore uniforms chosen to reflect both personal military ties and historical resonance. King Charles wore a Naval No.1 uniform with no medals or decorations – mirroring the attire of his grandfather, King George VI, who stood on the Buckingham Palace balcony on VE Day in 1945. Queen Camilla appeared beside him in a sapphire blue wool crepe dress and coat, adorned with a 12th Royal Lancers Brooch – honoring her late father’s regiment.

Events will continue across the UK this week. On Tuesday, 30,000 ceramic poppies will be installed at the Tower of London to remember those killed in conflict. Elsewhere, historic landmarks across the UK will be illuminated in the national colors of red, white and blue.

VE Day itself, Thursday, will include a national two-minute silence at midday, a service at Westminster Abbey attended by the King and Queen, and a large-scale concert at Horse Guards Palace. Later, 2,500 beacons will be lit across the UK.

Eighty years ago, the nation erupted in joy as news of the surrender broke. In London, the late Queen Elizabeth, then a 19-year-old princess, and her younger sister Margaret famously slipped out of Buckingham Palace to join the revelers.

But this year, the commemorative mood comes amid renewed tensions within the royal family. Just days ago, Prince Harry revealed that his father, King Charles, no longer speaks to him and that he cannot imagine bringing his family back to the UK after losing a court case over his security arrangements on Friday.